层次分析的专家判断可信度模型及其在项目决策中的应用

发布时间：2017-12-28 11:20

本文关键词：层次分析的专家判断可信度模型及其在项目决策中的应用　出处：《吉林大学》2007年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 现有的AHP专家判断可信度的处理方法并不是很完善,无论是在应用范围还是在实施难易程度上都不能够很好的应用于解决复杂系统的问题上。为了提供一个较为合理的方法,本文根据效用理论,依据专家对不同的因素会有不同的偏好,提出了以因素间相对偏好率作为标度的AHP新标度体系。在这种标度体系下,针对专家在做出判断时,会由于客观环境以及知识、经验、直觉的限制产生判断不确定性,提出构建专家判断可信度模型的新方法。采用这种专家判断可信度的构建方法求得的专家判断可信度处理专家原始判断矩阵,能够体现专家所认识的客观事实,并且大大简化了现有的专家判断可信度的求解过程。本文最后通过一个水利项目招标评标的案例详细演示了该方法的应用过程,表明了该方法具有良好的可操作性。
[Abstract]:The existing AHP expert judgement method of credibility is not very perfect. It can not be applied to solve complex system problems either in the scope of application or in the difficulty of implementation. In order to provide a more reasonable method, according to the utility theory, according to the different preferences of experts for different factors, a new AHP scaling system with relative preference ratio between factors as a scale is proposed. Under this scale system, when experts are making judgments, they will be able to predict uncertainty due to the limitation of objective environment and knowledge, experience and intuition. A new method of constructing expert judgement credibility model is put forward. The expert judgement matrix is processed by the expert judgement credibility method, and the expert judgement matrix can reflect the objective facts recognized by experts, and greatly simplify the solving process of the existing expert judgement credibility. At the end of this paper, the application process of the method is demonstrated in detail through a case of bidding and evaluation of a water project. It shows that the method has good maneuverability.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：C934

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