考虑后悔规避的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法

发布时间：2018-01-17 16:17

本文关键词：考虑后悔规避的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法　出处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对突发事件发展演变存在多种可能情景且实施不同应急方案时各情景发生概率不同的应急响应风险决策问题,基于后悔理论的思想,提出了一种考虑后悔规避的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法.在该方法中,首先分别针对突发事件造成的损失以及方案实施成本计算应急方案的效用值;然后,分别针对突发事件造成的损失和方案实施成本,计算各应急方案的后悔值,进而得到分别针对损失指标和方案实施成本的决策者对应急方案的感知效用;进一步地,将针对损失指标和方案实施成本的感知效用进行综合集成,得到应急方案的综合感知效用,并依据综合感知效用的大小确定应急方案排序.最后,通过一个算例分析说明了该方法的可行性与有效性.
[Abstract]:In view of the emergency response risk decision problem which has many possible scenarios and different probability when different emergency plan is implemented, the thought of regret theory is based on the theory of regret. In this paper, a risk decision method considering regret evading emergency response is proposed. In this method, the utility value of the emergency plan is calculated according to the loss caused by the emergency event and the cost of the project. Then, according to the loss caused by the emergency and the cost of the project implementation, the regret value of each emergency plan is calculated, and then the perceived utility of the decision maker to the emergency plan is obtained according to the loss index and the implementation cost of the plan respectively. Furthermore, the loss index and the perceived utility of the project implementation cost will be integrated synthetically to obtain the comprehensive perceived utility of the emergency plan, and determine the ranking of the emergency plan according to the size of the comprehensive perceived utility. Finally. The feasibility and effectiveness of the method are illustrated by an example.
【作者单位】：东北大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71101020,71371002,71471032) 中央高校基本科研业务经费(N120406003)
【分类号】：C934
【正文快照】： 0引言在突发事件的应急响应中,决策者需要从多个备选的应急方案(或应急预案)中选择出有效的方案对突发事件进行应对,以尽可能降低突发事件造成的损失[1_21.由于突发事件的发展演变往往具有较高的不确定性,因此应急响应中通常会面临突发事件存在多种可能情景的情形13-41.此外,

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