不确定决策的两阶段特征研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 02:40

本文选题：决策阶段 + 不确定决策　；参考：《浙江大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：长期以来,对决策问题的研究一直是管理学、经济学、心理学以及社会科学等领域关注的焦点。著名决策理论大师诺贝尔经济学奖得主西蒙,就有一个著名的论断“管理就是决策”,由此可见决策在管理中的重要性。以往的研究表明,决策的过程是一个完整的过程,决策者在决策过程中会经历决策的不同阶段,包括预期阶段、选择阶段以及反馈阶段。神经科学的研究表明,不同决策阶段拥有不同的神经基础。而长期以来,对决策问题的ERP研究又大多基于决策反馈阶段。因此,本文希望从决策阶段的角度出发,探讨预期阶段与反馈阶段各个决策影响因素之间的差异和特征,以及不同决策阶段之间的关系,从而了解不确定决策运行的机理,打开决策背后大脑的“黑箱”。本文以不确定决策过程作为研究对象,借助事件相关电位(ERP)技术,设计了一个金钱赌博实验来研究决策背后的神经基础。利用ERP技术时间分辨率高的特点,本研究主要关注了在决策启动阶段以及决策结果呈现阶段的脑神经活动特征。本研究发现,整个决策流程可分为决策信息加工、决策偏好形成以及结果体验和评估三个环节,并找到了各个环节处理的脑电成分依据。根据脑电成分的特点,并结合本研究的数据分析结果以及以往决策和神经科学领域的研究,本文得出了以下结论： (1)在决策预期阶段,不同决策类型的信息加工过程以及不同情境下个体的决策偏好存在差异,这种差异在ERP成分上主要体现为P2、P3成分的差异。 (2)在决策反馈阶段,不同决策影响因素会影响个体对决策结果的体验和评估,并且在ERP成分上主要体现为FRN、P3成分的差异。 (3)决策的反馈与预期在认知机制上是分离的,在预期阶段形成的决策偏好并不影响决策结果的体验。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the study of decision-making has been the focus of attention in the fields of management, economics, psychology and social science. Simon, the Nobel Prize winner in economics, has a famous conclusion that "Management is decision", which shows the importance of decision in management. Previous studies have shown that the decision-making process is a complete process in which the decision makers will go through different stages, including the expected stage, the selection stage and the feedback stage. Neuroscience studies have shown that different decision-making stages have different neural bases. For a long time, the ERP research of decision-making problem is based on the decision-feedback stage. Therefore, from the point of view of decision-making stage, this paper hopes to discuss the differences and characteristics of each decision influencing factor between the expected stage and the feedback stage, as well as the relationship between the different decision stages, so as to understand the mechanism of uncertain decision-making. Open the black box of the brain behind the decision. In this paper, with the help of event-related potential (ERP) technology, a money gambling experiment is designed to study the neural basis of decision making. With the advantage of high time resolution of ERP technology, this study focused on the characteristics of brain nerve activity in the stage of decision initiation and decision outcome presentation. It is found that the whole decision-making process can be divided into three parts: decision information processing, decision preference formation and result experience and evaluation. According to the characteristics of EEG components, combined with the data analysis results of this study and previous studies in the field of decision-making and neuroscience, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) in the stage of decision expectation, The information processing process of different decision types and the decision preference of individuals in different situations are different. The difference in ERP component is mainly reflected in the difference of P2P 3 component. (2) in the stage of decision feedback, Different decision influencing factors will influence the individual's experience and evaluation of the decision result, and the difference of the FRNN / P3 component in ERP is mainly reflected. (3) the feedback of decision is separated from the expectation in cognitive mechanism. The decision preference formed in the expected stage does not affect the experience of the decision outcome.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C934

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