动态路况下考虑决策者风险感知的地震物资调配动力学模型
发布时间：2018-09-14 07:01
【摘要】：决策者心理与行为对突发事件应急响应是否高效起到了决定性的作用。针对路况动态变化下的地震物资调配问题,基于前景理论,分别构建了救援中心和灾点决策者不同决策主体的风险感知函数,以衡量决策者对缺货和运输时间延迟的风险感知程度。从道路运力评估、物资流动、决策过程以及物资需求等模块建立了物资调配全过程系统动力学仿真模型。在此基础上,分析了两层决策者不同的决策态度(乐观/悲观)对应急物资调配过程产生的影响,并以汶川灾区粮食供应为例进行仿真实验,证明了模型的有效性和稳健型。
[Abstract]:The decision maker's psychology and behavior play a decisive role in the emergency response. Based on the foreground theory, the risk perception functions of different decision makers in rescue center and disaster point are constructed to solve the problem of seismic material allocation under the dynamic change of road conditions. To measure the risk awareness of decision makers about shortages and delays in shipping time. The system dynamic simulation model of the whole process of material allocation is established from the modules of road capacity evaluation, material flow, decision-making process and material demand. On this basis, the influence of different decision attitude (optimistic / pessimistic) of two levels of decision makers on the process of emergency material allocation is analyzed, and the simulation experiment of grain supply in Wenchuan disaster area is carried out, which proves the validity and robustness of the model.
【作者单位】： 大连理工大学系统工程研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(90924006,71171029)
【分类号】：C934;O225
[Abstract]:The decision maker's psychology and behavior play a decisive role in the emergency response. Based on the foreground theory, the risk perception functions of different decision makers in rescue center and disaster point are constructed to solve the problem of seismic material allocation under the dynamic change of road conditions. To measure the risk awareness of decision makers about shortages and delays in shipping time. The system dynamic simulation model of the whole process of material allocation is established from the modules of road capacity evaluation, material flow, decision-making process and material demand. On this basis, the influence of different decision attitude (optimistic / pessimistic) of two levels of decision makers on the process of emergency material allocation is analyzed, and the simulation experiment of grain supply in Wenchuan disaster area is carried out, which proves the validity and robustness of the model.
【作者单位】： 大连理工大学系统工程研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(90924006,71171029)
【分类号】：C934;O225
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