北京城市限行政策对物流效益影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 19:55

本文关键词： 城市限行政策实证研究配送时效交通拥堵空气污染　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：北京因为其政治经济地位和优越的资源条件吸引着大量人口和企业的聚集,近年来北京的城市交通拥堵、城市环境污染等城市问题越发严重,城市物流是导致这些问题的一个重要因素。为解决这些城市问题,北京的城市管理者制定了许多物流政策,如对货车在时间上和空间上的限行政策,单双号限行政策等。随着“京津冀一体化”的推进,北京市第六阶段机动车排放地方标准实施的逼近,北京市急需对既有的物流政策做出相应的调整以适应新发展的需求,然而政策的调整需要建立在对既有政策评估的基础之上。学术界对于城市限行政策的评估多选取仿真和建模的规范研究方法,基于企业调研数据,对现实进行一定的假设与简化,未有以实证的方法、基于城市物流数据而展开的客观研究。在此背景下,本文首先分析了北京市限行政策的现状,通过文献回顾和现状分析提出了城市限行政策对于物流配送时效、物流社会效益和物流环境效益影响的四个假设。继而选取效益和政策的变量,搜集大量数据并对数据进行非货运贡献剔除的预处理,选定分析样本,构建检验的模型。接着采取了描述性统计分析方法、均值差异的Wilxon秩和检验、相关性分析、K-means聚类分析、回归分析等方法,分别检验假设结果,并对数据进行进一步的分析以解释城市限行政策对物流效益的影响原理。文章得到的主要结论有:1.北京市每日的货车限时政策对于货运配送时效并无显著影响。2.单双号限行政策显著降低了货物配送到北京的配送时效,其影响的方式是延长单双号期间货运配送车辆的配送时间来实现的。3.单双号限行政策显著降低了货运带来的交通拥堵,其实现方式是通过降低限行期间进入北京市的货运车辆来实现的。然而交通拥堵指数整体上在限行期间降低了 57.39%,但是单双号限行期间的货运车辆降幅水平仅在35%左右,表明单双号限行政策并未有将货车流量降到平日的一半。4.单双号限行政策显著降低了货运带来的空气污染,其实现方式是通过降低货运带来的污染物排放所实现的。然而通过区县货车流量与该区县的AQI的回归模型分析得出,货运车辆带来的污染仅占AQI的一小部分,AQI还受到其他因素的重大影响,单双号限行期间的空气改善还有很大程度上是由配套的燃煤限制等措施所贡献的。以上结论可为北京市政府管理者修订既有的物流政策、治理空气污染、缓解交通拥堵等方面提供有效参考与支撑。
[Abstract]:Because of its political and economic status and superior resource conditions, Beijing attracts a large number of people and enterprises to gather. In recent years, Beijing's urban traffic congestion, urban environmental pollution and other urban problems are becoming more and more serious. Urban logistics is an important factor leading to these problems. In order to solve these urban problems, city managers in Beijing have formulated many logistics policies, such as restrictions on the time and space of freight cars. With the promotion of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration", the implementation of local standards for motor vehicle emissions in Beijing 6th is approaching. Beijing urgently needs to adjust the existing logistics policies to meet the needs of new development. However, the adjustment of policy needs to be based on the existing policy evaluation. The academic evaluation of urban restriction policy mostly selects the normative research methods of simulation and modeling, based on enterprise research data. Some hypotheses and simplifications of the reality have not been carried out by empirical method based on the urban logistics data. Under this background, this paper first analyzes the current situation of the restriction policy in Beijing. Through literature review and current situation analysis, this paper puts forward four hypotheses of the effect of urban traffic restriction policy on logistics distribution timeliness, logistics social benefits and logistics environmental benefits, and then selects the benefits and policy variables. Collect a lot of data and pre-process the data for non-freight contribution elimination, select the analysis samples, build the test model. Then we adopt the descriptive statistical analysis method, the Wilxon rank sum test of the mean difference. Correlation analysis, K-means clustering analysis, regression analysis and other methods, respectively test the hypothetical results. Further analysis of the data is carried out to explain the impact of urban restrictions on logistics benefits. The main conclusions are as follows:. 1. The daily freight car time limit policy in Beijing has no significant effect on the freight distribution limitation. 2. Single and even number limit policy significantly reduces the distribution time limit of goods to Beijing. The way of its influence is to extend the distribution time of freight distribution vehicles during the period of single and even number. The single and even number restriction policy has significantly reduced the traffic congestion caused by freight transport. Its implementation is achieved by reducing the number of freight vehicles entering Beijing during the traffic restriction period. However, the traffic congestion index as a whole has been reduced by 57.39% during the traffic restriction period. But the number of single and even cargo vehicles during the period of decline in only 35% or so. It shows that the single and even number limit policy has not reduced the volume of freight cars to half of the normal day. The single even number restriction policy has significantly reduced the air pollution caused by freight transport. Its realization is achieved by reducing the pollutant emissions brought by freight transportation. However, through the regression model analysis of freight car flow and AQI in the county. Only a small fraction of AQI pollution from freight vehicles has been heavily affected by other factors. The air improvement during the single and even number limit period is also contributed to a large extent by supporting measures such as coal-burning restrictions. The above conclusions can be used to revise the existing logistics policy and control air pollution for the Beijing municipal government. To provide effective reference and support to alleviate traffic congestion and so on.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.27

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