新疆物流业碳排放现状及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 12:48

本文选题：低碳物流　切入点：新疆物流业　出处：《新疆大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：背景下,污染加剧与能源趋紧的在全球气候变暖、环境“低碳”逐渐进入人们的视野。调整经济发展方式、推进产业升级、实现经济与环境协调发展的低碳经济已成为各地政府倡导的新常态。然而,作为新疆六大支柱产业之一的物流业,却依旧处于高能耗、高碳排的粗放式发展阶段。新疆要抓住这股“绿色浪潮”带来的机遇与挑战,关键在于探索出一条物流业低碳化发展之路,以实现与环境协调发展,为地区发展低碳经济助力。本文首先从宏观发展、发展潜力及能源消费三方面对新疆物流业1995-2012期间的发展现状进行初步定位;采用排放系数法估算了新疆物流业的碳排放,并基于测算结果从总量、强度对这期间新疆物流业碳排放现状进行判断。其次在此基础上运用EKC模型和脱钩模型分别从长期趋势和短期变动两个维度重点分析新疆物流业碳排放与自身发展间的关系,以深入探究新疆物流业碳排放特征。再次采用LMDI方法从碳因子、能源结构、能源强度、产业结构和经济规模等五方面进一步对影响物流业碳排放因素进行分解和分析。最后基于以上研究结果结合新疆实际情况提出新疆物流业低碳化对策。文章的研究结果表明:新疆物流业碳排放表现出总量的阶段性增长、强度的有所下降、与自身发展的不协调性和尚未脱钩的现状;碳因子、能源结构、能源强度是抑制物流业碳排放增长的因素,其中能源强度的负向抑制作用最大,但能源结构表现出的减排空间更大;而产业结构和经济规模是促进物流业碳排放增长的因素,其中经济规模是拉动物流业碳排放增长的主要力量;由于抑制作用效果小于促进作用的效果,故物流业碳排放表现为持续增长;新疆物流业要实现低碳化运作还需从能源强度和能源结构入手,通过多方共同努力、提高物流运作效率等方式来保障物流全程的低碳化,以达到与生态环境协调发展和与碳排放脱钩的绿色发展目标。
[Abstract]:Under the background, pollution and energy tightening in the global climate warming, the environment of "low carbon" gradually into people's vision. The adjustment of the mode of economic development, promote industrial upgrading, low carbon economy to realize the coordinated development of economy and environment has become the new norm around the government advocate. However, as one of the six pillar industries of Xinjiang logistics industry, but is still in the stage of extensive development of high energy consumption, high carbon emissions. Xinjiang should seize this "green wave" opportunities and challenges, the key is to explore a low-carbon development path of the logistics industry, in order to achieve the harmonious development of environment and area, for the development of low carbon economy power. This paper from the macro development, development potential and the energy consumption of the three aspects of the development status of the logistics industry in Xinjiang during the 1995-2012 preliminary positioning; to estimate the Xinjiang logistics industry's carbon emissions by emission coefficient method, and based on the calculation of node Results from the total, the strength of the judgment on this period of carbon emissions in Xinjiang logistics industry status quo. Secondly based on the EKC model and the model changes in two dimensions respectively focuses on the analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions of Xinjiang logistics industry and its development from the long-term trend and short-term, to probe the logistics industry in Xinjiang. The characteristics of carbon emissions again the LMDI method from the carbon factor, energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure and economic scale of five further factors affecting the carbon emission of logistics industry decomposition and analysis. Finally, based on the above research results combined with the actual situation of Xinjiang low-carbon logistics industry in Xinjiang countermeasures. The research results show that the carbon emissions of Xinjiang logistics industry show stage of growth, the strength decreased, and its development status of coordination and without decoupling; carbon factor, energy structure, energy intensity is inhibitor Flow factors of carbon emissions growth, the energy intensity of negative, but the energy structure showed a greater reduction of space; industrial structure and economic scale factor for promoting the logistics industry to the growth of carbon emissions, the economic scale is the main driving force of logistics industry carbon emissions growth; due to the inhibition effect is less than to promote the effect of the carbon emissions of the logistics industry is continuously increasing; the logistics industry in Xinjiang to achieve low-carbon operation also need to start from the energy intensity and energy structure, through joint efforts, to improve the efficiency of logistics and other ways to protect low-carbon logistics, to achieve coordinated development and ecological environment and carbon emissions decoupling the green development goals.

【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X322;F259.27

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