甘肃物流产业与国民经济协同发展研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 19:05

本文选题：甘肃物流产业 + 国民经济　；参考：《兰州财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以协同学理论为基础,对物流产业和国民经济的协同发展进行研究。主要从序参量的选取、协同发展水平测度、协同发展评价及协同发展决策这几方面入手,设计了序参量选取算法、构建了差分式协同水平测度(DSLM)模型和协同发展决策(SDD)模型。本论文主要的研究成果如下:1、设计了基于相关-主成分分析的序参量选取算法。在主成分分析的基础上,引入相关分析,构造出一种新的序参量选取算法:相关-主成分分析法。算法首先采用相关分析剔除冗余指标,然后使用主成分分析法选取对系统贡献较高的指标,确保了序参量信息冗余度低,也保证了序参量最大程度的反映系统运行情况。2、建立了突出系统协同发展动态过程的DSLM模型。在原有协同水平测度模型的基础上引入系统有序度一阶后项差分的概念,考虑子系统有序度的变化速率及方向对系统间协同发展的影响,该模型克服了原模型计算协同度时仅以当期的有序度水平来量化系统协同度的局限,更加突出系统协同发展的动态过程。3、构建了能够确定物流产业和国民经济未来发展决策值的SDD模型,以便于给出更具体的政策建议。该模型主要从协同发展的角度对未来物流产业和国民经济的发展提供决策依据,解决了协同发展决策不明确的问题。模型将物流产业和国民经济协同发展的下一阶段作为目标值,将系统序参量的具体发展要求作为动态约束条件,从而得到协同发展的非线性规划模型,将模型求得的各个序参量最优解结合协同演化阶段模型得到的协同发展年限共同确定未来发展的决策值。文章以甘肃省作为研究对象,根据甘肃物流产业和国民经济2006-2015年的数据进行协同发展研究,得出以下结论:(1)相关-主成分分析算法选取了具有甘肃省发展特色的物流产业和国民经济的序参量,验证了该算法在选取序参量时的客观准确性;(2)基于DSLM模型对甘肃省近十年的协同发展水平进行了测度,通过和实际情况进行对比,验证了DSLM模型相比于原模型更能反映系统的真实协同发展情况;(3)应用SDD模型对甘肃省物流产业和国民经济协同发展进行了决策研究,提出了有针对性的甘肃物流产业和国民经济的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of Synergetics, this paper studies the coordinated development of logistics industry and national economy. Starting with the selection of order parameters, the measurement of cooperative development level, the evaluation of cooperative development and the decision making of cooperative development, the algorithm of selecting order parameters is designed, and the differential collaborative level measure DSLM model and the SDD model of collaborative development decision are constructed. The main research results of this thesis are as follows: 1. An order parameter selection algorithm based on correlation-principal component analysis (PCA) is designed. On the basis of principal component analysis (PCA), a new order parameter selection algorithm, correlation principal component analysis (PCA), is constructed by introducing correlation analysis. The algorithm firstly uses correlation analysis to eliminate redundant indexes, and then uses principal component analysis to select indicators that contribute more to the system, so that the redundancy of order parameter information is low. It also ensures that the order parameters can reflect the system operation to the greatest extent, and establishes the DSLM model which highlights the dynamic process of the cooperative development of the system. Based on the original cooperative level measure model, the concept of the first order difference of the system order degree is introduced, and the influence of the change rate and direction of the order degree of the subsystem on the cooperative development among the systems is considered. This model overcomes the limitation that the coordination degree of the original model can only be quantified by the order degree level of the current period. The dynamic process of cooperative development of the system is more prominent. The SDD model which can determine the decision value of the logistics industry and the future development of the national economy is constructed in order to give more concrete policy suggestions. This model mainly provides the decision basis for the future logistics industry and the development of national economy from the angle of cooperative development, and solves the problem of unclear decision making of collaborative development. The model takes the next stage of the coordinated development of logistics industry and national economy as the target value, and takes the specific development requirements of the system order parameters as the dynamic constraint conditions, and obtains the nonlinear programming model of collaborative development. The optimal solution of each order parameter obtained by the model is combined with the cooperative development years obtained from the model of co-evolution stage to determine the decision value of the future development. Based on the data of Gansu logistics industry and national economy from 2006 to 2015, this paper takes Gansu Province as the research object. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) the correlation-principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm selects the order parameters of logistics industry and national economy with the characteristics of Gansu Province's development. The objective accuracy of the algorithm in selecting order parameters is verified. Based on the DSLM model, the cooperative development level of Gansu Province in the past ten years is measured and compared with the actual situation. It is verified that the DSLM model can reflect the real cooperative development of the system better than the original model. The SDD model is used to study the coordinated development of logistics industry and national economy in Gansu Province. The paper puts forward some policy suggestions on logistics industry and national economy in Gansu Province.
【学位授予单位】：兰州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.27;F127

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