发展多式联运对我国经济社会的贡献研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 07:58

本文选题：多式联运 + 经济社会　；参考：《对外经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：多式联运是运输业向综合运输方向发展的重要导向。发展多式联运对深化综合交通运输体系建设、促进现代物流发展、推动实体经济降本增效、提升国民经济竞争力等具有重大现实意义。本研究在对国内外多式联运发展现状进行分析的基础上,对多式联运的技术经济特征、预期贡献测算方法、预期直接贡献、预期间接贡献进行了一些有益探讨,主要研究内容及结论如下:(1)多式联运存在需求侧、供给侧和交易过程三个技术特征,需求侧方面包括完整性、增值性和分散性,供给侧方面包括运输过程的高度连续性与协作性、运输方式的互补性、运载设备的合标性和运输系统的网络经济性,交易方面包括交易频率与费用简洁化、交易复杂性。同时,提出了多式联运对经济社会贡献的测算思路和路线,并确定了测算基数。(2)从提高能源利用效率、减少温室气体排放、降低社会物流成本、提升综合运输效率以及提高运输可靠性等五个方面测算了多式联运发展的直接贡献。结果表明,通过发展多式联运可将我国交通运输业在2020年的能源利用效率提高8.3%,减少温室气体排放6.6%,降低运输费用和全社会物流成本3.5%和1.9%,提升综合运输效率30%以上,降低我国重型货车交通事故2960起并减少死亡人数1620人。(3)从拉动经济增长、促进产业发展、提高经济竞争力、促进资源集约利用、减少交通拥堵以及保障国家能源安全等六个方面测算了多式联运发展的间接贡献。测算结果表明,通过发展多式联运可将我国交通运输业在2020年可直接拉动各领域投资4585亿元并使经济增长约为6900~9200亿元,降低商品价格约0.3%~0.5%以及提高出口企业利润3.3%~3.5%,减少91.75万辆重型货车使用量并降低7.2%的国家高速公路交通量,减少石油消耗量约2450万吨。
[Abstract]:Multimodal transport is an important direction for the development of transportation industry to the direction of integrated transportation. The development of multimodal transport is of great practical significance in deepening the construction of comprehensive transportation system, promoting the development of modern logistics, reducing the cost and increasing efficiency of the real economy, and promoting the competitiveness of the national economy. Based on the analysis of the development situation of multimodal transport at home and abroad, this study makes some beneficial discussions on the technical and economic characteristics, the method of calculating expected contribution, the expected direct contribution and the expected indirect contribution of multimodal transport. The main contents and conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) Multimodal transport has three technical characteristics: demand-side, supply-side and transaction process. The demand-side includes completeness, value-added and dispersion. The supply-side includes the high continuity and cooperation of the transportation process, the complementarity of the transportation mode, the standardization of the transportation equipment and the network economy of the transportation system. The transaction includes the simplicity of the transaction frequency and cost, and the complexity of the transaction. At the same time, the paper puts forward the idea and route of measuring the contribution of multimodal transport to economy and society, and determines the base of calculation. It can improve the efficiency of energy use, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce the cost of social logistics. The direct contribution to the development of multimodal transport is estimated from five aspects: improving the efficiency of integrated transportation and improving the transport reliability. The results show that the energy utilization efficiency of China's transportation and transportation industry can be increased by 8.3% in 2020, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 6.6%, transportation costs and logistics costs of the whole society will be reduced by 3.5% and 1.9%, and the comprehensive transportation efficiency will be increased by more than 30% through the development of multimodal transport. To reduce the number of heavy truck traffic accidents in China by 2960 and to reduce the death toll by 1620 people) to promote economic growth, promote industrial development, enhance economic competitiveness, and promote intensive utilization of resources. The indirect contribution of multimodal transport development is estimated in six aspects, such as reducing traffic congestion and ensuring national energy security. The results show that by developing multimodal transport, China's transportation industry will be able to direct the investment of 458.5 billion yuan in various fields in 2020 and the economic growth will be about 6900 to 920 billion yuan. To reduce commodity prices by about 0.3 percent and to increase the profit of export enterprises by 3.35 percent, to reduce the use of 917500 heavy trucks and to reduce the national highway traffic by 7.2 percent, and to reduce oil consumption by about 24.5 million tons.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F512.4;F124

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