衡阳粮油物流园区规模研究

发布时间：2018-06-29 21:41

本文选题：物流园区 + 灰色预测模型　；参考：《南华大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：被称为“第三利润源”的现代物流业成为衡量一个国家现代化水平和国际竞争力的标准之一,其在国民经济中发挥着重要作用。随着现代物流业的发展,物流园区迎来建设的高峰期。物流园区在国外已经发展数十载,然而引入我国的时间仅仅十几年,且在我国各个地区发展不均衡。尽管建设物流园区时可以借鉴国外成熟的经验,但在借鉴经验时必须结合区域内的实际情况才能获取较好的规划建设效果,因此积极推进物流园区规模的研究具有重要意义。本文主要围绕衡阳粮油物流园区建设规划的规模问题展开研究分析,核心内容包括物流园区物流量预测和物流园区规模确定两部分。首先查阅国内外物流园区相关理论,对衡阳粮油物流园区进行总体定位。其次,在进行衡阳粮油物流园区物流量预测时,提出了经初始条件优化和马尔科夫链修正的灰色预测模型,并运用该模型预测衡阳粮油物流园区的物流总量及各类产品的物流量,分别获取了经初始条件优化的灰色预测模型、马尔科夫链状态划分的预测结果。再次,对比分析四种常用的物流园区规模确定方法,得知时空消耗法和功能分区法在确定内部功能结构准确定位的物流园区规模时具有科学性和实践性。结合衡阳粮油物流园区的总体定位,运用时空消耗均衡思想改进功能分区法的仓储区、流通加工区及配送区规模确定模型,通过计算各功能分区规模,得到衡阳粮油物流园区的规模推荐值,并运用类比分析对园区规模值进行校验。最后总结本文完成的研究工作,并指出研究中尚可改进的地方和继续研究的方向。
[Abstract]:The modern logistics industry, which is called "the third profit source", has become one of the standards to measure a country's modernization level and international competitiveness, and it plays an important role in the national economy. With the development of modern logistics industry, logistics park ushered in the peak period of construction. Logistics parks have been developed for tens of years in foreign countries, however, they have been introduced to China for only ten years, and developed unevenly in various regions of our country. Although we can learn from the mature experience of foreign countries in the construction of logistics parks, we must combine the actual situation in the region to obtain better planning and construction results. Therefore, it is of great significance to actively promote the research on the scale of logistics parks. This paper mainly focuses on the scale of Hengyang grain and oil logistics park construction planning, the core content includes logistics park material flow forecast and logistics park scale determination two parts. First, refer to the domestic and foreign logistics park related theory, Hengyang grain and oil logistics park overall positioning. Secondly, when forecasting the material flow of Hengyang grain and oil logistics park, a grey forecasting model is put forward, which is optimized by initial conditions and modified by Markov chain. The model is used to predict the total logistics volume of Hengyang grain and oil logistics park and the material flow of all kinds of products. The grey forecasting model optimized by initial conditions and the forecast result of Markov chain state partition are obtained respectively. Thirdly, by comparing and analyzing four commonly used methods to determine the scale of logistics park, we know that the space-time consumption method and the function partition method are scientific and practical in determining the scale of logistics park with accurate positioning of internal functional structure. Combined with the overall positioning of Hengyang grain and oil logistics park, the model of storage area, circulation processing zone and distribution area is improved by using the thought of space-time consumption equilibrium. The scale recommendation value of Hengyang grain and oil logistics park is obtained, and the scale value of Hengyang grain and oil logistics park is calibrated by analogy analysis. Finally, this paper summarizes the research work, and points out that the research can be improved and the direction of further research.
【学位授予单位】：南华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F259.2

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