水下公路隧道工程投资风险评价与控制研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 09:52

本文关键词： 水下公路隧道工程投资风险风险评价风险控制　出处：《重庆交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市基础设施建设的发展,尤其是国家长江经济带的建设,水下公路隧道工程由于减少占用城市空间、不影响城市景观、利于航运等优点,其建设规模会越来越大、投资额度会越来越大。由于水下公路隧道项目建设具有工程技术难度大、施工技术复杂、施工设备要求高、复合地质、超高水压、超大直径、浅覆土以及大型复杂项目管理、投融资等问题十分复杂;这些技术经济特点,决定了水下公路隧道项目建设投资的风险性,其投资风险影响已严重制约其投融资而受到高度重视。但是,我国现有水下隧道项目投资的风险风险管理与控制理论研究和实践还相对薄弱,难以满足水下公路隧道项目投资风险控制的需要。因此,全面系统研究水下公路隧道投资风险与控制技术的相关理论,对于提高水下公路隧道工程投资风险管理的水平与投资效果具有重要的理论意义与实践意义。本文以盾构施工背景下的水下公路隧道工程为研究对象,结合相关风险分析理论,完成了以下几方面的研究工作:首先,本文分析了水下公路隧道工程投资风险的特殊性,从其作为基础设施项目的特点、项目的投融资特点、建设施工技术的复杂性等不确定性因素出发,分析了水下公路隧道投资风险形成机理;其次,本文从水下公路隧道工程投资风险三维空间的定义、风险识别等风险分析流程出发进行了风险辨识的系统研究,针对水下公路隧道工程投资风险的特点构建了水下公路隧道投资风险的基本空间,并根据水下公路隧道工程投资风险多因素耦合作用的特点进行了耦合作用分析;再次本文根据水下公路隧道工程投资风险因素的耦合性、模糊性等特点,充分考虑风险因素的层次性、交互影响等特点建立了水下公路隧道工程投资风险评价的指标体系,建立了适用于水下公路隧道投资风险评价的G-ANP模型,并以南京市纬三路过江通道工程为例进行了实证分析,验证了模型的适用性;最后,从水下公路隧道工程投建设的全寿命周期的角度,并结合水下公路隧道工程建设投资的主要影响因素,提出了水下公路隧道工程的投资风险控制措施,完善了水下公路隧道工程投资风险管理的理论。本论文结合中交建设股份特大科技项目:复合地质条件下超高水压超大直径盾构过江隧道建设成套技术研究子课题---南京市纬三路过江通道工程投资风险管理与控制技术研究来完成。
[Abstract]:With the development of city infrastructure construction in our country, especially the construction of the Yangtze River economic belt, highway tunnel engineering under water due to reduce the occupied space of the city, does not affect the city landscape, conducive to shipping etc., the construction scale will be more and more, the amount of investment will be more and more. The highway tunnel project construction of underwater engineering the technical difficulty is big, complex construction technology, construction equipment requirements, complex geology, ultra high pressure, large diameter, shallow overburden, large and complex project management problems, such as investment and financing is very complex; the technical and economic characteristics, determines the risk of underwater highway tunnel project construction investment, the investment risk has serious influence restricting its financing has received great attention. However, China's existing underwater tunnel project investment risk management and control theory research and practice are relatively weak, difficult to meet the needs of underwater highway tunnel Project investment risk control needs. Therefore, the related theory of comprehensive system research on underwater highway tunnel investment risk and control technology, it has important theoretical and practical significance for improving the underwater highway tunnel project investment risk management level and investment effect. In this paper, the shield construction under the background of underwater highway tunnel project the object, combined with the theory of risk analysis, completed the following research work: first, this paper analyzes the particularity of underwater highway tunnel project investment risk, from the characteristics of infrastructure projects, project financing characteristic, construction technology of complex uncertain factors, analysis the formation mechanism the investment risk of highway tunnel under water; secondly, this article from the definition of underwater highway tunnel project investment risk in 3D space, such as risk identification risk analysis process of The system of risk identification, according to the characteristics of underwater highway tunnel construction project investment risk investment risk basic space of highway tunnel under the water, and the coupling effect is analyzed according to the characteristics of underwater highway tunnel project investment risk coupling factors; again according to the coupling of the highway tunnel project investment risk factors the fuzzy characteristics, considering the level of risk factors, the characteristics of interaction and establishes the index system of underwater highway tunnel project investment risk evaluation, G-ANP model was established and applied to underwater highway tunnel investment risk evaluation, and taking Nanjing latitude three passing river channel project has carried on the empirical analysis for example, verified the applicability of the model; finally, from the highway tunnel under the water for the whole life cycle of construction of the angle, and combined with the underwater highway tunnel project The main factors, put forward the investment risk control measures of highway tunnel engineering under water, improve the theory of the investment risk management of highway tunnel engineering under water. This paper combined with the cross construction company large science and technology project: complex geological conditions of high technology research projects - Nanjing City latitude three passing river channel project investment risk management and control technology to complete the tunnel pressure of super large diameter shield.

【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U455.1

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