LB住宅小区建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 10:51

  本文选题：小区建设项目　切入点：项目风险识别　出处：《吉林大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着我国经济的高速发展,建筑工程项目的规模不断扩大。在工程建设过程中人员、设备、材料、环境等发生的变化;设计、方法、资金等方面出现的问题均会影响建设项目的有效实施,会产生不同的项目风险,工程项目风险一直伴随着建设项目全过程,造成很大经济损失,工程项目的风险管理具有一定的现实意义。本文以LB住宅小区建设项目为研究对象,运用项目管理、项目风险管理等多种的理论方法,对LB住宅小区建设项目风险管理进行了较系统深入的研究。首先,介绍了论文的选题背景、意义、国内外相关研究现状及相关理论基础并对LB住宅小区建设项目进行简要介绍。其次,论文通过项目风险识别方法的选择确定综合运用头脑风暴法、经验值法、专家调查法,这样既避免了使用单一方法识别风险而导致的片面性,又提高LB住宅小区建设项目风险因素的可信度。采用风险综合分析方法将LB住宅小区建设项目风险因素识别过程分为三个阶段:第一阶段是收集项目内外部资料及行业标杆项目已存在的风险因素为本项目风险识别做支撑;第二阶段是运用头脑风暴法、经验值法初步识别出LB住宅小区建设项目五大风险源即为环境风险、经济风险、管理风险、政策风险、技术风险。第三阶段根据上文识别出的五大风险源34个风险因素设计风险量表,邀请专家对风险量表进行填写,经过专家四轮的风险预测并由项目管理人员进行数据处理形成最终的项目风险清单。再次,采用层次分析法对上文识别出的LB住宅小区建设项目风险发生概率、危害程度、重要性进行评估,得出LB住宅小区建设项目的I级风险6个、Ⅱ级风险13个、Ⅲ风险7个;论文最后根据项目风险应对的系统性、有效性、先进性原则提出项目风险应对计划,并进一步提出每一个风险的应对措施以期为项目各参与主体提供切实可行的项目风险管理的建议。LB住宅小区建设项目是集技术、经济、管理于一体的综合性社会活动,项目各方面都存在着一定的不确定性,通过项目风险管理研究,保障项目目标的顺利实现。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy, the scale of the construction project is expanding constantly. The changes of people, equipment, materials, environment, etc., in the process of construction, design, method, etc. The problems in capital and other aspects will affect the effective implementation of construction projects, and will result in different project risks. The project risks have been accompanied by the whole process of construction projects, resulting in great economic losses. The risk management of engineering project has certain practical significance. This article takes the LB residential district construction project as the research object, uses the project management, the project risk management and so on many kinds of theory methods, The risk management of LB residential district construction project is studied systematically and deeply. Firstly, the background and significance of the thesis are introduced. Domestic and foreign related research status and related theoretical basis and a brief introduction of LB residential district construction project. Secondly, through the project risk identification method to determine the comprehensive use of brainstorming method, empirical value method, expert investigation method, This avoids the one-sidedness of using a single method to identify risks. The risk factors identification process of LB residential district construction project is divided into three stages: the first stage is to collect the internal and external data of the project. And the existing risk factors of the benchmark project are supported by the risk identification of the project; The second stage is to use the brainstorming method and the experience value method to preliminarily identify the five major risk sources of the LB residential district construction project, namely, environmental risk, economic risk, management risk and policy risk. Technical risk. In the third stage, according to the 34 risk factors identified above, the risk scale is designed and experts are invited to fill in the risk scale. After four rounds of risk prediction by experts and data processing by project managers to form the final project risk list. Thirdly, using AHP to identify the probability of risk occurrence and the degree of hazard of the LB residential district construction project identified above. The importance of LB residential district construction project is evaluated, and it is concluded that there are 6 grade I risks, 13 grade 鈪，

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