基于系统动力学的西部地区PPP项目风险管理路径研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 13:16

本文选题：PPP　切入点：西部地区　出处：《重庆大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自从十八届三中全会做出关于“使市场在资源配置中起决定作用和更好发挥政府作用”的决定,PPP(Public-Private Partnership)模式在我国公共项目领域得到广泛关注,尤其是西部地区的重庆市,率先出台关于PPP投融资改革方案,力求加快城市基础设施建设和提高公共产品或服务供给水平,从而减轻政府财政预算压力和促进城市可持续发展。然而,我国西部地区自然状况恶劣、经济基础落后,政府财政积累与投资严重不足,社会发展与基础设施建设的资金需求之间的矛盾,成为西部地区可持续发展的不确定因素。国内外学者对PPP模式进行了广泛的研究,从最初的概念、定义研究一直深入到风险管理的研究,但对于西部地区PPP项目风险管理的研究较少,并且公共项目公私合作是一个系统工程,全面系统的风险管理是西部地区公共项目公私合作的关键环节。通过对PPP项目风险管理的研究成果进行梳理,发现学者们更倾向于对某一个风险阶段或者单一风险因素进行研究,忽略了PPP项目的系统性以及风险因素的交叉关联性。梳理学者在系统理论、系统动力学理论、工程项目风险管理以及PPP项目风险管理的研究成果,归纳出研究较为集中和具有代表性的PPP项目风险因素,并分析论证了PPP项目是一个系统,强调了系统动力学在PPP项目风险管理的优势。接着通过PPP项目相关理论分析了PPP项目可能存在的理论风险因素,通过西部地区公共项目公私合作现状以及问题的分析,重点是对重庆市公共项目公私合作现状进行分析,指出了西部地区PPP项目较为重要的风险因素,将理论风险因素以及较为重要的风险因素进行刷选、补充、分类形成了西部地区PPP项目风险指标体系以及调查问卷,开展了西部地区PPP项目调查实践,对问卷进行因子分析,最终形成集“合作主体效能子系统”、“合作环境子系统”、“建设与运营子系统”的“西部地区PPP项目风险因素系统”,然后建立西部地区PPP项目风险因素系统动力学因果关系图,识别出了三条风险路径:“合作主体风险来源路径”、“合作环境风险来源路径”、以及“建设与运营风险来源路径”,得到的结论是:①西部地区PPP项目较为重要的风险因素是合作主体效能风险、政策法律法规风险,监管风险等。②由于风险的关联性以及传递性,建设与运营风险主要来源于合作主体、合作环境以及项目公司的建设与运营管理能力,风险管理的重点在于提高合作主体效能以及优化合作环境。最后针对西部地区较为重要的风险因素提出了相应的风险管理建议。
[Abstract]:Since the decision made by the third Plenary session of the 18 CPC Central Committee on "making the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and giving better play to the role of the government", the Public-Private Partnership model has received extensive attention in the field of public projects in China, especially in Chongqing in the western region. To take the lead in the reform of PPP investment and financing, to speed up the construction of urban infrastructure and to improve the supply of public goods or services, thereby reducing the pressure on the government budget and promoting the sustainable development of the city. The natural situation in western China is poor, the economic base is backward, the government's financial accumulation and investment are seriously insufficient, and the contradiction between social development and the capital demand for infrastructure construction. It has become an uncertain factor in the sustainable development of the western region. Scholars at home and abroad have carried out extensive research on the PPP model, from the initial concept, definition research to the study of risk management. However, there is little research on PPP project risk management in the western region, and public project public-private cooperation is a systematic project. The comprehensive and systematic risk management is the key link of the public project public-private cooperation in the western region. Through combing the research results of the PPP project risk management, It is found that scholars are more inclined to study a certain risk stage or a single risk factor, ignoring the systematization of the PPP project and the cross-correlation of risk factors. Based on the research results of project risk management and PPP project risk management, this paper summarizes the risk factors of PPP project which are more concentrated and representative, and analyzes and demonstrates that PPP project is a system. This paper emphasizes the advantage of system dynamics in PPP project risk management, then analyzes the possible theoretical risk factors of PPP project through the theory of PPP project, and analyzes the present situation and problems of public project public-private cooperation in western China. The emphasis is on the analysis of the status quo of public-private cooperation in public projects in Chongqing, pointing out the more important risk factors of PPP projects in the western region, and selecting the theoretical risk factors as well as the more important risk factors to supplement, It forms the risk index system and questionnaire of PPP project in the western region, and carries out the investigation practice of the PPP project in the western region, and carries on the factor analysis to the questionnaire. Finally, a "risk factor system of PPP project in the western region" is formed, which includes "cooperative subject effectiveness subsystem", "cooperative environment subsystem" and "construction and operation subsystem". Then the dynamic causality diagram of PPP project risk factors system in the western region is established. Three risk paths are identified: "risk source path for cooperative subject", "risk source path for cooperative environment", and "risk source path for construction and operation". The conclusion is that the risk cause of PPP project in West China is more important. Element is the effectiveness risk of cooperative subject. Because of the relevance and transitivity of the risk, the construction and operation risk mainly comes from the main body of the cooperation, the cooperation environment and the construction and operation management ability of the project company. The emphasis of risk management is to improve the efficiency of the main body of cooperation and optimize the cooperative environment. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding risk management suggestions for the more important risk factors in the western region.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283

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