基于关键链方法下SPT项目进度管理的研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 23:40

本文选题：关键链 + 项目进度管理　；参考：《电子科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：在进入大数据和互联网+时代的今天,新的商业环境面临着巨大挑战。面对瞬息万变的市场,面对日趋复杂的个性化需求,企业必须更加快速而高效地做出响应以应对外部环境的不确定性。因此企业的运作日趋项目化。而企业项目成功的关键是取决于合理的项目进度计划和有效的控制方法。由于传统项目管理中关键路径和计划评审技术只是单一片面地考虑了工序间的逻辑关系,并没有考虑资源约束和人的组织行为,在项目实践中,很难克服许多不确定性因素,导致一些项目一再延期甚至流产,为此企业在残酷的市场竞争中付出了巨大的代价。因此企业亟需一种新的项目管理方法,能够解决现实工作中的:工期延误、资源冲突、效率低下等各种问题,同时又能最大限度的保证项目整体运行的最优化。高德拉特(Goldratt)博士在1997年提出的关键链管理方法就是这样一种方法。它以约束理论为依据,从系统的角度出发,充分考虑了人的作用,将传统的项目管理方法与人的行为艺术性地结合在一起,创造性地提出了聚焦约束因素,实现整体最优的核心思想。本文在分析了传统的项目进度管理方法的基础之上,介绍了这种全新的项目管理方法,即关键链管理方法,并阐述其基本思想与现实应用方法:1.在阐述了约束理论的基础上,引入了关键链项目管理方法,强调找出项目的制约因素,寻找项目的延误原因,通过对制约因素进行松绑,挖潜项目如期完成的潜力。2.充分考虑在项目计划编制和实施中人的心理因素3.在非关键链到关键链的入口处和关键链尾部设置缓冲区,通过项目缓冲、汇入缓冲和资源缓冲机制来消除项目中不确定因素,实现风险聚合。同时提出了项目作业复杂度,风险弹性系数,工序影响因子,为计算时间缓冲区,提供了更加客观的评估方法。之后本文着重介绍了蒙特卡洛仿真和水晶球预测软件,在对具体的SPT项目实例的分析过程中,分别建立了PERT/CPM项目进度计划和关键链项目进度计划的仿真模型,利用Project2013和模拟软件Crystal Ball,对两个模型分别进行20000次的仿真,通过概率分析,将两个模型进行对比,直观地体现出关键链项目管理方法相比于传统项目管理方法的优势。通过SPT项目实例表明关键链管理方法可以很好的运用在实际的项目管理中,借助蒙特卡洛的仿真分析,可以更加客观的处理项目运作过程中的不确定性,能提质增速,具有一定的理论价值和现实指导意义。
[Abstract]:In entering big data and the Internet era today, the new business environment is facing enormous challenges. Facing the rapidly changing market and the increasingly complex individual demand, enterprises must respond more quickly and efficiently to deal with the uncertainty of the external environment. As a result, the operation of the enterprise is becoming more and more project-oriented. The key to the success of enterprise project depends on reasonable project schedule and effective control method. Because the traditional critical path and plan review technology in the traditional project management only consider the logical relationship between the processes in a single and one-sided way, and do not consider the resource constraints and the organizational behavior of people, it is very difficult to overcome many uncertain factors in the project practice. Some projects have been delayed or even aborted, and the enterprises have paid a great price in the cruel market competition. Therefore, enterprises urgently need a new project management method, which can solve the problems of time delay, resource conflict, inefficiency and so on. At the same time, it can ensure the optimization of the overall operation of the project to the maximum extent. One such approach is the critical chain management approach that Dr. Goldratt proposed in 1997. On the basis of constraint theory and from the point of view of system, it fully considers the role of human beings, combines the traditional project management method with human behavior artistically, and creatively puts forward the focusing constraint factors. The core idea of realizing the overall optimum. Based on the analysis of the traditional project schedule management method, this paper introduces this new project management method, that is, the key chain management method, and expounds its basic idea and practical application method: 1. On the basis of the theory of constraint, this paper introduces the method of key chain project management, emphasizes to find out the restricting factors of the project, to find out the reasons for the delay of the project, and to unbind the constraint factors, and the potentiality of the project to finish the project on schedule. Fully consider the human psychological factors in the preparation and implementation of the project plan. The buffer is set at the entrance and tail of the non-critical chain to the critical chain, and the project buffer, the import buffer and the resource buffer mechanism are used to eliminate the uncertain factors in the project and realize the risk aggregation. At the same time, the project operation complexity, risk elasticity coefficient and process influence factor are proposed, which provides a more objective evaluation method for calculating time buffer. Then this paper introduces Monte Carlo simulation and crystal ball prediction software. In the process of analyzing concrete SPT project, the simulation models of PERT/CPM project schedule and key chain project schedule are established respectively. The two models are simulated for 20000 times using Project2013 and simulation software Crystal Ball.Through the probability analysis, the two models are compared and the advantages of the key chain project management method compared with the traditional project management method are shown intuitively. The SPT project example shows that the key chain management method can be well applied in the actual project management, with the help of Monte Carlo simulation analysis, can more objectively deal with the uncertainty in the process of project operation, can improve the growth rate of quality. It has certain theoretical value and practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU722

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