基于文本挖掘的项目风险分析方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 06:53

本文选题：项目风险 + 文本挖掘技术　；参考：《山东大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：项目处于充满不确定性要素的环境中,因此项目风险分析工作成为项目管理中的重要组成部分。项目风险分析是将对项目目标实现有影响作用的不确定性要素识别出来,并度量该要素变动对项目造成的影响。在对项目风险分析中,项目风险多以文本的形式存在而且不易转化成数字化的形式进行分析。项目的文本资料中所代表的项目运行条件的变化或者利益相关方的态度变化等预示着项目可能会出现的变动,可用来进行项目风险分析工作。本文利用文本挖掘技术来从海量的文本数据中识别出项目风险要素并进行风险度量,包括设计基于文本挖掘的项目分析方法以及根据文本挖掘技术流程实现对项目风险的识别和度量工作。本文首先以项目利益相关方管理理论以及行动者网络理论在项目风险管理中的研究为基础,构建了项目风险分析网络,界定了项目风险要素的范围,将项目的风险转化为项目网络中结点变动引起的风险和由网络连线变动引起的风险；结合文本挖掘技术的限制条件以及项目风险分析任务的要求,通过对比分析给出了可用于识别项目风险的文本挖掘方案。然后设计了基于文本挖掘的项目风险分析的实现方法——以文本挖掘的技术框架为基础,分析各工作步骤应该完成的任务以及完成任务的输入、操作流程以及输出；并且设计了项目要素变动的风险度量方法。最后以实际项目为案例将风险分析结果与以往的风险分析结果进行对比,验证了本文所得出的风险分析方法的可行性和有效性。本文利用文本挖掘技术实现了对项目文本资料中关于项目相关要素的变动、项目利益相关方的态度变化、期望等项目风险进行识别与度量,弥补了现有的风险分析方法只能通过问卷调查、访谈等手段来分析难以数据化的风险。同时,基于文本挖掘技术的风险识别方法可以实现自动化的风险分析过程,可以及时识别项目风险要素变动并完成分析过程,让管理者有更多的时间来制定风险应对方案,提高了项目应急管理能力。
[Abstract]:Project risk analysis is an important part of project management because it is in an environment full of uncertain elements. Project risk analysis is to identify the uncertain factors that have an impact on the realization of the project objectives and measure the impact of the change of the elements on the project. In the project risk analysis, the project risk mostly exists in the form of text and is not easy to be transformed into digital form. The change of project operating conditions or the attitude of stakeholders in the text of the project indicates the possible change of the project, which can be used to carry out the project risk analysis. In this paper, we use text mining technology to identify the project risk elements from the massive text data and measure the risk. It includes designing the project analysis method based on text mining and realizing the identification and measurement of project risk according to the technical flow of text mining. Firstly, based on the research of project stakeholder management theory and actor network theory in project risk management, the project risk analysis network is constructed, and the scope of project risk elements is defined. Transform the risk of the project into the risk caused by the node change in the project network and the risk caused by the change of the network connection, combine the restriction condition of the text mining technology and the requirement of the project risk analysis task, A text mining scheme which can be used to identify project risk is given through comparative analysis. Then, the paper designs a project risk analysis method based on text mining, which is based on the technical framework of text mining, analyzes the tasks that should be completed in each work step and the input, operation flow and output of the completed task. At the same time, the risk measurement method of the change of project elements is designed. Finally, the results of risk analysis are compared with the previous results of risk analysis, which verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the risk analysis method obtained in this paper. In this paper, we use text mining technology to identify and measure the project risk, such as the change of the project related elements, the change of the attitude of the project stakeholders, the expectation and so on. It makes up for the existing risk analysis methods only through questionnaire, interview and other means to analyze the risk that is difficult to data. At the same time, the risk identification method based on text mining technology can realize the automatic risk analysis process, identify the change of the project risk elements and complete the analysis process in time, so that the manager has more time to formulate the risk response plan. Improved project emergency management ability.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71

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