基于自由现金流模型对PD公司价值的评估

发布时间：2018-06-12 22:28

本文选题：公司内在价值评估 + 自由现金流贴现模型　；参考：《华南理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：PD公司是作者就职的风险投资公司拟投资的一个项目企业,成立于2006年,是一家专业从事体外冲击波治疗技术、超声聚焦肿瘤治疗技术、泌尿外科诊疗设备等医疗器械的研发、生产、销售于一体的创新成长型高新技术企业,处于医疗器械行业。经过风险投资公司投资经理的尽职调查,认为该公司具有投资价值,具有很好的发展前景,现处于洽商投资作价、设计投资方案阶段。如何对PD公司的价值进行判断和确定,成了风险投资公司及PD公司眼前最紧迫需要解决的问题。本文站在投资者的角度选取合适、科学的企业价值评估方法对PD公司的内在价值进行评估,旨在为投资交易价格的谈判提供依据和参考。本文通过对成本法、市场法、收益法等共计三种基本的价值评估方法进行对比研究,得出各种评估方法的优缺点及适用条件,结合PD公司所处的医疗器械行业的背景特点,同时考虑到本次评估的目的是为风险投资公司股权投资作价提供参考依据,投资机构关心的是企业整体资产的未来获利能力,本文选择出自由现金流两阶段模型作为PD公司内在价值评估的方法;通过对自由现金流模型及其评估思路进行详细分析,总结出应用流程;对PD公司所处的环境以及业务情况进行详细分析,结合这些分析结果以PD公司2010-2014年的财务报表作为参考的基础数据,对PD公司的主要财务指标进行预估,估测出PD公司未来的自由现金流;运用CAPM模型估测出资本成本,通过将未来自由现金流进行贴现,估测出PD公司在2014年12月31日时点的内在价值为4.5亿元,股权价值为4.2亿元;对PD公司内在价值的评估进行敏感性分析,得出PD公司内在价值的估值范围为2.3~17.3亿元,股权价值范围为2~17亿元;交易案例比较法测算的股权市场价格3.75亿元。通过论文的研究,作者可以将在MBA学习期间学习的财务管理、公司金融、会计学、市场研究、企业创新、项目管理、人力资源等知识运用到PD公司的价值研究中,使理论与实际相结合,解决公司的实际问题;同时,通过以PD公司为个案进行研究,对运用自由现金流模型对企业价值评估具有很好的参考实践意义,对评估同行业企业甚至其他行业的公司价值有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:PD Company is a project enterprise that the venture capital company that the author works for is planned to invest, was established in 2006, is a specialized in extracorporeal shock wave therapy technology, ultrasound focused tumor treatment technology, urology diagnosis and treatment equipment and other medical equipment research and development. Production, sales in one of the innovative growth of high-tech enterprises, in the medical equipment industry. Through the due diligence of the investment manager of the venture capital company, it is considered that the venture capital company has investment value and good development prospect, and it is now in the stage of negotiation of investment pricing and design of investment scheme. How to judge and determine the value of PD company has become the most urgent problem to be solved by venture capital company and PD company. In this paper, from the perspective of investors, we select the appropriate and scientific enterprise value evaluation method to evaluate the intrinsic value of PD Company, in order to provide the basis and reference for the negotiation of the investment transaction price. Through the comparative study of three basic valuation methods, cost method, market method and income method, the advantages and disadvantages and applicable conditions of various evaluation methods are obtained, combined with the background characteristics of the medical device industry of PD Company. Also considering that the purpose of this evaluation is to provide a reference basis for the pricing of equity investments by venture capital companies, investment institutions are concerned with the future profitability of the overall assets of the enterprise. This paper chooses the free cash flow two-stage model as the internal value evaluation method of PD company, and summarizes the application process through the detailed analysis of the free cash flow model and its evaluation ideas. The environment and business situation of PD Company are analyzed in detail. Based on the results of the analysis, the main financial indicators of PD Company are estimated using the financial statements of PD Company 2010-2014 as the reference data. Estimating the future free cash flow of PD company, using CAPM model to estimate the capital cost and discounting the future free cash flow, the intrinsic value and equity value of PD company at December 31, 2014 are estimated to be 450 million yuan and 420 million yuan respectively. The sensitivity analysis of the evaluation of PD company's intrinsic value shows that the valuation range of PD company's intrinsic value is 2.3 ~ 1.73 billion yuan, the equity value range is 2 ~ 1.7 billion yuan, and the stock market price measured by comparative method of transaction case is 375 million yuan. Through the research of the thesis, the author can apply the knowledge of financial management, corporate finance, accounting, market research, enterprise innovation, project management and human resources to the value research of PD Company. At the same time, by taking PD Company as a case study, it has good reference and practice significance to use free cash flow model to evaluate enterprise value. It can be used for reference to evaluate the company value of the same industry and even other industries.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F275

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