EPC模式下M钢铁公司炼钢项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 06:03

本文选题：EPC管理模式 + 冶金建设项目　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：冶金建设项目具有投资规模较大、建设周期偏长,设备供货和施工材料总投资占比高,设计和设备供货周期较长,施工周期、安装调试周期较长的显著特点,因此项目执行过程中在质量、安全、进度、成本等方面存在不确定性管理风险。EPC项目管理模式所具有的优势,使得EPC管理模式在冶金建设项目中得到普遍的应用。但如何识别这些风险并根据风险的种类和发生的概率制定相应的对策,成为冶金建设项目总承包项目管理中不容回避的一个重要问题。本文在冶金建设项目特点进行研究的基础上,结合EPC总承包项目的实施过程,提出了冶金建设总承包项目风险评价的方法,建立了风险评价指标体系和评价模型。以M钢铁公司炼钢总承包项目为例,建立了包含8个一级指标23个二级指标的风险评价指标体系。通过专家调研的方法确定了M钢铁公司炼钢总承包项目二级指标的风险概率分布,采用CIM并联响应模型计算了一级指标的风险概率分布。利用层次分析法(AHP)计算各指标权重的基础上,评价了该项目的风险,明确了对项目具有重要影响的风险要素和风险概率较高的指标,提出了风险防范的措施。经过分析计算,M钢铁公司炼钢厂建设项目采用EPC总承包模式,能够满足项目建设的基本要求,但其风险分析的结果为“较高”,需要采取有效的风险控制措施加以防范。在各风险要素中,进度风险、成本风险概率相对较高,是风险控制和防范的关键因素。
[Abstract]:Metallurgical construction projects are characterized by large scale of investment, long construction period, high proportion of total investment in equipment supply and construction materials, long cycle of design and equipment supply, long period of construction, and long period of installation and commissioning. Therefore, the quality, safety, schedule, cost and so on in the process of project implementation have the advantages of uncertainty management risk. EPC project management model has been widely used in metallurgical construction projects. However, how to identify these risks and make corresponding countermeasures according to the types of risks and the probability of occurrence has become an important problem in the general contracting project management of metallurgical construction projects. Based on the study of the characteristics of metallurgical construction project and the implementation process of EPC general contract project, this paper puts forward the risk evaluation method of metallurgical construction general contract project, and establishes the risk evaluation index system and evaluation model. Taking the general contracting project of steel making in M Iron and Steel Company as an example, a risk evaluation index system consisting of 8 first-grade indexes and 23 second-class indexes was established. The risk probability distribution of the secondary index of the total steelmaking project in M Iron and Steel Company is determined by the method of expert investigation, and the risk probability distribution of the first grade index is calculated by using the CIM parallel response model. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weight of each index, this paper evaluates the risk of the project, clarifies the risk factors which have important influence on the project and the index with high risk probability, and puts forward the measures of risk prevention. Through analysis and calculation, the EPC general contracting mode is adopted in the construction project of the steelmaking plant of Hom Iron and Steel Company, which can meet the basic requirements of the project construction, but the result of the risk analysis is "high", and effective risk control measures should be taken to prevent it. Among the risk factors, the probability of schedule risk and cost risk is relatively high, which is the key factor of risk control and prevention.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TF089

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