山东半岛蓝色经济工程研究院建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-09-11 19:35

【摘要】：建筑工程具有周期长、投资大、施工技术复杂、参与方多、环境干扰多等特点,工程项目不可避免地面临诸多不确定风险,如不加以防范,极有可能影响项目的顺利建设及运营,甚至会造成不可估量的损失。提前识别存在的风险,通过认真分析,寻求一种科学的管理方法,付出最小成木将项目风险降至最低限,通过项目风险管理研究,使项目风险损失得到有效规避和降低,确保项目计划顺利完成,以获取工程项目预期的经济、社会及环境效益,意义重大。风险管理作为一项系统的管理过程和管理活动,是工程项目管理中必不可少的重要环节。加强风险管理的意义在于通过风险识别、风险分析、风险评价等环节,最大程度明确工程项目存在的风险及风险的程度,对项目建设及项目运营中潜在的不确定性风险,有针对性地寻求应对措施进行有效管控,从而达到将风险降至最低的目的。本研究以山东半岛蓝色经济工程研究院建设项目为研究对象,运用风险管理的理论和方法,对该立项工程项目存在的风险进行识别、分析、评估,从而制订出规避和控制风险的应对措施,使该项目潜在的风险得到有效规避,将风险损失降至最低。首先在研读相关文献的基础上,对工程项目领域风险管理研究的理论和方法进行了较系统的阐述。又结合山东半岛蓝色经济工程研究院建设项目的实际情况,依据该实体工程项目风险管理的研究目标,拟定了研究框架,识别和分析了项目筹建和施工中可能存在的风险。并利用所构建的综合评价指标体系,运用层次分析法、流程图法、分解分析法、核查表法、事故树分析法等研究方法,评估了山东半岛蓝色经济工程研究院建设项目投资决策阶段、项目前期阶段、项目建设阶段及项目管理阶段存在的风险,重点从融资风险、管理风险和质量风险三个方面对工程项目进行了单项风险评价和总体风险评价。先期对山东半岛蓝色经济工程研究院建设项目风险相关数据进行调查整理,进而对该项目风险进行定量评估,以确定项目存在的风险级别,为工程项目风险控制奠定基础。研究结果显示,该项目融资、管理、质量以及整个工程方面的风险值分别为51.3、52.9、42.9和48.7,从而得出,山东半岛蓝色经济工程研究院建设项目存在中等风险,处于可规避和控制范围。应针对不同阶段,加强相关政策分析,采取多种方式组合,化解土地拆迁风险；开发多元融资,化解融资风险：加强项目管理,控制成本风险：加强项目监管,掌控质量风险。通过一系列措施,把项目各方面的风险降低到较低和低等程度内,特别要重视项目管理和融资风险,以防止其对整个工程建设的影响。
[Abstract]:Construction projects have the characteristics of long period, large investment, complex construction technology, more participants, more environmental interference, and so on. The engineering projects inevitably face many uncertain risks, such as not to prevent them. It is very likely to affect the smooth construction and operation of the project, and even cause incalculable losses. Identify the existing risks in advance, through careful analysis, seek a scientific management method, pay the minimum to reduce the project risk to the lowest limit, through the project risk management research, the project risk loss can be effectively avoided and reduced. It is of great significance to ensure the smooth completion of the project plan to achieve the expected economic, social and environmental benefits of the project. Risk management, as a systematic management process and management activity, is an essential and important link in engineering project management. The significance of strengthening risk management lies in making clear to the maximum extent the risk and the degree of risk existing in the project through risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation, and the potential uncertainty risk in the construction and operation of the project. The aim is to minimize risk by seeking effective control measures. This study takes the construction project of the Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula as the research object, and applies the theory and method of risk management to identify, analyze and evaluate the risks existing in the project. The countermeasures to avoid and control the risk are worked out so that the potential risk of the project can be effectively circumvented and the risk loss will be reduced to the minimum. Firstly, the theory and method of risk management in the field of engineering project are systematically expounded on the basis of reading relevant documents. Combined with the actual situation of the construction project of Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula, according to the research goal of risk management of the entity engineering project, the research framework is drawn up, and the possible risks in the preparation and construction of the project are identified and analyzed. And using the comprehensive evaluation index system, using analytic hierarchy process, flow chart, decomposition analysis, verification table method, accident tree analysis and other research methods, The paper evaluates the investment decision stage, the early stage of the project, the project construction stage and the project management stage of the Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula, with emphasis on the financing risk. The single risk evaluation and overall risk evaluation of engineering project are carried out in three aspects of management risk and quality risk. The related data of the construction project risk of Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula were investigated in advance, and then the risk of the project was evaluated quantitatively to determine the risk level of the project and lay the foundation for the risk control of the project. The results show that the risk values of the project in financing, management, quality and the whole project are 51.3 / 52.9 / 42.9 and 48.7, respectively. It is concluded that the construction project of the Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula has moderate risk and is within the scope of avoidance and control. In view of different stages, we should strengthen the analysis of relevant policies, adopt a variety of ways to combine to resolve the risk of land demolition and relocation, develop multiple financing, resolve financing risks, strengthen project management, control cost risks, strengthen project supervision and control quality risks. Through a series of measures, the risks in all aspects of the project should be reduced to a lower and lower degree, and special attention should be paid to project management and financing risks in order to prevent their impact on the whole project construction.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71

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