承包商视角下的改进挣得值法研究

发布时间：2018-09-18 16:37

【摘要】：在工程建筑行业仍处于快速发展的当代,承包商作为工程实施的一大主体,在当中发挥着举足轻重的作用。成本作为项目管理三大板块之一,也是作为项目管理者要重点思考并控制管理的内容。承包商的成本管控成为衡量项目成败和企业效率的核心,对于工程建筑项目及相关企业的分析评价十分重要：挣得值法作为传统的成本分析方法,仍然具有实用价值,在帮助分析成本、进度状况时,发挥着重要作用。但是,当承包商使用时,其针对性不强,面对当前状况,论文做了以下主要工作：将挣值法的本质进行剖析,发现其不合理处,从而进行改进；从承包商角度出发,引入新指标PVc与EVc,从而得到新的分析指标,并对以前某些指标加以区分；在假设承包商计划盈利的前提下,将分析结果进行了全新的归纳与总结。建立GA-SVM估算模型来确定PVc的值：介绍了支持向量机估算模型,总结了方法特点与待解决问题；对遗传算法进行了简述,构建GA-SVM估算模型,说明了使用模型进行估算的流程及当中涉及重要内容；总结了承包商基于GA-SVM估算模型和改进挣值进行成本分析的过程；并对应用改进挣得值法进行多时点分析进行了说明。引入案例N,收集该地区的类似项目运用GA-SVM模型进行回归分析,并预测其PVc值;并从承包商角度进行成本分析,并通过比对不同时间节点的监测数据,评价期间管理效果；比较传统方法,总结了改进后方法的优势。通过改进传统挣得值法,使其能够被承包商充分应用,能够更好反映项目进度-成本的复杂状况。同时引入科学的估计方法及应用计算机技术,改变项目管理低效的状态,对于工程项目管理工作的科学实施进行了初步性探索,具有一定实际意义。
[Abstract]:In the engineering construction industry is still in the rapid development of contemporary, contractors as a major part of the implementation of the project, in which plays a pivotal role. As one of the three major parts of project management, cost is also the content that project managers should focus on and control management. Contractor's cost control is the core to measure the success of the project and the efficiency of the enterprise. It is very important for the analysis and evaluation of the engineering construction project and related enterprises: as a traditional cost analysis method, the earned value method is still of practical value. Plays an important role in helping to analyze costs and progress. However, when the contractor uses it, its pertinence is not strong. In the face of the current situation, the thesis has done the following main work: analyze the essence of earned value method, find its unreasonable place, and carry on the improvement from the contractor's point of view, This paper introduces new indexes PVc and EVc, to get new analysis indexes and distinguishes some former indexes. On the premise of assuming contractor's planned profit the analysis results are summed up and summarized completely. The GA-SVM estimation model is established to determine the value of PVc. The support vector machine estimation model is introduced, the characteristics of the method and the problems to be solved are summarized, the genetic algorithm is briefly described, and the GA-SVM estimation model is constructed. This paper explains the process of using the model to estimate and the important content involved in it; summarizes the process of cost analysis based on the GA-SVM estimation model and the improved earned value; and explains the application of the improved earned value method to the multi-time point analysis. Case N is introduced to collect similar projects in this area using GA-SVM model to carry out regression analysis and predict their PVc value, and cost analysis is carried out from the contractor's point of view, and by comparing the monitoring data of different time nodes, the management effect during the period is evaluated. Compared with the traditional method, the advantages of the improved method are summarized. By improving the traditional earned value method, it can be fully applied by the contractor and can better reflect the complex situation of project schedule and cost. At the same time, the introduction of scientific estimation methods and the application of computer technology to change the inefficient state of project management is a preliminary exploration for the scientific implementation of engineering project management, which is of certain practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F406.72;F426.92

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