科研项目管理中的风险评价究

发布时间：2018-11-22 12:22

【摘要】：随着国家的发展、社会的进步,我国在科研领域投入的费用呈大幅度增长的态势。但是,经合组织(OECD)的统计资料显示,我国科研项目的投入产出水平却明显低于世界平均水平。其中一个重要原因就是风险管理在科研项目的管理过程中没有引起足够的重视,甚至有些科研项目的风险管理形同虚设,没有起到任何作用。因此,重视科研项目管理中的风险评价,提高科研项目的成功率已是迫在眉睫的事情。本文旨在分析科研项目及其风险管理的特殊性的基础上,探寻一种适合针对科研项目的、行之有效的风险管理方法,并且构建出科研项目风险评价的模型,使科研项目的风险管理更有依据,有效降低科研项目管理中的风险,提高科研项目的管理水平,使科研项目开发的成功率得到保障,从而促进我国科研领域的发展。首先,本文对本课题的基础理论进行了概述,包括科研项目风险管理的定义和风险管理的基本流程等。在此基础上,通过文献研究、实际调研及向专家咨询等方法,对科研项目及其风险的特点进行了归纳、总结。然后,对科研项目风险评价的特殊性进行了分析,对科研项目面临的风险进行了识别。针对科研项目的风险,结合实际调研和向专家咨询,本文构建了科研项目风险评价的指标体系,采用德尔菲方法和层次分析法相结合的主观赋权法确定指标的权重。根据科研项目风险的特点,结合模糊数学理论和灰色理论的适用范围,构建了模糊灰色综合评价模型。最后,以航天科研项目为例进行了实证分析,验证了模型的有效性和实用性。
[Abstract]:With the development of the country and the progress of the society, the expenditure in the field of scientific research in China is increasing by a large margin. However, according to the OECD (OECD) statistics, the input-output level of scientific research projects in China is obviously lower than the world average. One of the important reasons is that risk management does not attract enough attention in the process of scientific research project management, and even some scientific research project risk management has no effect. Therefore, it is urgent to pay attention to risk evaluation in scientific research project management and improve the success rate of scientific research project. On the basis of analyzing the particularity of scientific research project and its risk management, this paper aims to explore a suitable and effective risk management method for scientific research project, and construct a model of risk evaluation for scientific research project. The risk management of scientific research project can be based on, reduce the risk of scientific research project management, improve the management level of scientific research project, ensure the success rate of scientific research project development, and promote the development of scientific research field in China. Firstly, this paper summarizes the basic theory of this subject, including the definition of risk management of scientific research projects and the basic process of risk management. On this basis, the characteristics of scientific research projects and their risks are summarized and summarized by means of literature research, actual investigation and consultation with experts. Then, the particularity of risk assessment of scientific research project is analyzed, and the risk of scientific research project is identified. Aiming at the risk of scientific research project, combining with the actual investigation and consulting with experts, this paper constructs the index system of risk evaluation of scientific research project, and adopts the subjective weighting method combining Delphi method and AHP to determine the weight of the index. According to the characteristics of scientific research project risk and the application scope of fuzzy mathematics theory and grey theory, the fuzzy grey comprehensive evaluation model is constructed. Finally, the effectiveness and practicability of the model are verified by taking the space research project as an example.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：G311

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