EPC模式下电网工程建设风险评价方法研究
发布时间：2019-06-07 18:53
【摘要】：长期以来,在电网工程项目的建设过程中,项目管理人员面临着各种的项目风险。长距离的输电项目和高电压等级输变电工程项目,由于项目建设周期长、专业多、难度大,电网建设过程中遇到的风险也越来越多。因此,本文将风险理念引入到电网工程管理中,并结合电网工程的特点,能够对电网工程建设风险进行有效管理。本文对电网工程风险管理进行系统研究,针对电网工程的特点,综合运用解释结构模型、网络层次分析法等研究方法,采用定性与定量相结合的思想研究了电网工程建设风险管理的问题,以期为电网工程建设风险管理提供科学的理论依据和可操作性的方法。主要研究内容和创新点如下：首先,将风险管理理论运用到电网工程风险管理实践中,并对电网工程风险管理进行系统研究。分析电网工程的特征、对电网工程的风险与风险管理给出明确界定,在此基础上,构建了电网工程风险管理理论规范框架。研究了电网工程风险因素、风险管理的特征,并识别出电网工程风险管理的主要风险因素,制定风险因素清单,为后续研究提供理论基础。其次,对影响电网工程建设的风险因素进行研究,风险因素包括政治风险、社会风险、自然风险、经济风险、技术风险和管理风险六类；针对电网工程风险因素,通过以ISM方法建立解释结构模型,其因素间的复杂关系因而由此方法分析出来。同时,研究了风险因素的结构层次关系,给电网工程建设风险的量化分析作出有益指导。另外,建立了电网工程建设风险评价指标体系,给出了结合ANP与ISM的评价方法,本模型综合考虑各风险因素之间的相关关系和网络关系,使得电网工程建设风险管理拥有了量化分析风险的依据。最后,根据风险评价结果,对电网建设工程的风险应对进行了重点研究,探讨风险控制机制,并对各类风险因素提出相应的应对措施,具可操作性。本研究对于电网工程风险的识别、评价与应对进行了探索,为电网工程在不确定环境下对风险的管理与应对提供理论和策略支持。
[Abstract]:For a long time, in the construction process of power grid engineering projects, project managers are faced with a variety of project risks. For long distance transmission projects and high voltage grade power transmission and transformation projects, because of the long construction cycle, many specialties and great difficulties, there are more and more risks encountered in the process of power grid construction. Therefore, this paper introduces the risk concept into power grid engineering management, and combined with the characteristics of power grid engineering, can effectively manage the construction risk of power grid engineering. In this paper, the risk management of power grid engineering is studied systematically. According to the characteristics of power grid engineering, the explanatory structure model, network analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and other research methods are comprehensively used. The problem of risk management in power grid engineering construction is studied by combining qualitative and quantitative ideas, in order to provide scientific theoretical basis and operable method for risk management of power grid engineering construction. The main research contents and innovations are as follows: firstly, the risk management theory is applied to the practice of power grid engineering risk management, and the power grid engineering risk management is studied systematically. The characteristics of power grid engineering are analyzed, and the risk and risk management of power grid engineering are clearly defined. on this basis, the theoretical framework of risk management of power grid engineering is constructed. The risk factors of power grid engineering and the characteristics of risk management are studied, the main risk factors of power grid engineering risk management are identified, and the list of risk factors is drawn up, which provides a theoretical basis for the follow-up research. Secondly, the risk factors affecting the construction of power grid engineering are studied, including political risk, social risk, natural risk, economic risk, technical risk and management risk. Aiming at the risk factors of power grid engineering, the explanatory structure model is established by ISM method, and the complex relationship between the factors is analyzed by this method. At the same time, the structural hierarchical relationship of risk factors is studied, which provides useful guidance for the quantitative analysis of power grid engineering construction risk. In addition, the risk evaluation index system of power grid engineering construction is established, and the evaluation method combining ANP and ISM is given. the model comprehensively considers the correlation between the risk factors and the network relationship. It makes the risk management of power grid engineering construction have the basis of quantitative analysis of risk. Finally, according to the results of risk assessment, the risk response of power grid construction project is studied, the risk control mechanism is discussed, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward for all kinds of risk factors, which is operable. In this study, the identification, evaluation and response of power grid engineering risk are explored, which provides theoretical and strategic support for the risk management and response of power grid engineering in uncertain environment.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71
本文编号：2495009
[Abstract]:For a long time, in the construction process of power grid engineering projects, project managers are faced with a variety of project risks. For long distance transmission projects and high voltage grade power transmission and transformation projects, because of the long construction cycle, many specialties and great difficulties, there are more and more risks encountered in the process of power grid construction. Therefore, this paper introduces the risk concept into power grid engineering management, and combined with the characteristics of power grid engineering, can effectively manage the construction risk of power grid engineering. In this paper, the risk management of power grid engineering is studied systematically. According to the characteristics of power grid engineering, the explanatory structure model, network analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and other research methods are comprehensively used. The problem of risk management in power grid engineering construction is studied by combining qualitative and quantitative ideas, in order to provide scientific theoretical basis and operable method for risk management of power grid engineering construction. The main research contents and innovations are as follows: firstly, the risk management theory is applied to the practice of power grid engineering risk management, and the power grid engineering risk management is studied systematically. The characteristics of power grid engineering are analyzed, and the risk and risk management of power grid engineering are clearly defined. on this basis, the theoretical framework of risk management of power grid engineering is constructed. The risk factors of power grid engineering and the characteristics of risk management are studied, the main risk factors of power grid engineering risk management are identified, and the list of risk factors is drawn up, which provides a theoretical basis for the follow-up research. Secondly, the risk factors affecting the construction of power grid engineering are studied, including political risk, social risk, natural risk, economic risk, technical risk and management risk. Aiming at the risk factors of power grid engineering, the explanatory structure model is established by ISM method, and the complex relationship between the factors is analyzed by this method. At the same time, the structural hierarchical relationship of risk factors is studied, which provides useful guidance for the quantitative analysis of power grid engineering construction risk. In addition, the risk evaluation index system of power grid engineering construction is established, and the evaluation method combining ANP and ISM is given. the model comprehensively considers the correlation between the risk factors and the network relationship. It makes the risk management of power grid engineering construction have the basis of quantitative analysis of risk. Finally, according to the results of risk assessment, the risk response of power grid construction project is studied, the risk control mechanism is discussed, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward for all kinds of risk factors, which is operable. In this study, the identification, evaluation and response of power grid engineering risk are explored, which provides theoretical and strategic support for the risk management and response of power grid engineering in uncertain environment.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 李亮;;国内电力设计院EPC总承包工程的采购管理[J];华电技术;2011年10期
，本文编号：2495009
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