石油管道项目的投标报价风险分析与决策研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 14:10

本文选题：石油管道　切入点：投标报价　出处：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国建筑市场的繁荣以及竞争力的加强,施工企业要想在激烈的市场环境中生存发展,就要对投标报价这一阶段重视起来。施工企业在投标报价的整个过程中存在着许多风险,此时对报价进行风险评价分析,对工程项目可能出现的各种不确定性因素采取有效的预防措施,尽量消除风险带来的损失,或者将损失程度降到最低,从而为企业投标报价工作提供依据,对企业中标后的利润实现提供了保障。因此,系统地研究投标报价风险问题变得尤为重要。本文以石油管道项目为研究对象,结合项目投标的实际情况,从投标报价风险分析与风险决策两个方面进行深入系统地研究,主要从风险识别、风险评价和风险决策管理进行分析。首先介绍了投标报价风险研究的背景和意义、国内外现状,提出了本文的研究内容和技术路线,并介绍了石油管道项目投标报价的程序和要求、编制方法、策略和技巧。然后,本文介绍了工程项目风险管理相关内容,对石油管道项目投标报价进行风险识别,分析出风险因素,通过风险评价对石油管道项目投标报价中的风险进行详细研究。其次。本文采用概率分析法对报价进行分析研究,建立了风险模型,并结合实际工程,利用@risk风险分析软件,对报价风险概率分布进行模拟,对报价风险进行决策并采取防范措施。最后,对本文的研究内容和成果进行总结以及阐述下一步的研究方向。
[Abstract]:With the prosperity of the construction market and the strengthening of the competitive power in our country, if the construction enterprises want to survive and develop in the fierce market environment, it is necessary to attach importance to the stage of bidding and quotation.There are many risks in the whole process of bidding and quotation in construction enterprises. At this time, risk evaluation and analysis of quotation are carried out, and effective preventive measures are taken to the various uncertain factors that may appear in the project, so as to eliminate the losses caused by risks as far as possible.Or the degree of loss is reduced to the minimum, which provides the basis for the bidding and quotation work of the enterprise, and provides the guarantee for the realization of the profit after the enterprise wins the bid.Therefore, it is very important to study the risk of bidding price systematically.This paper takes the oil pipeline project as the research object, combines the actual situation of the project bidding, carries on the thorough and systematic research from two aspects of the bidding quotation risk analysis and the risk decision, mainly from the risk identification,Risk assessment and risk decision management are analyzed.This paper first introduces the background and significance of the research on the risk of bidding quotation, the present situation at home and abroad, puts forward the research content and technical route of this paper, and introduces the procedures and requirements, compilation methods, strategies and techniques of bidding quotation for oil pipeline projects.Then, this paper introduces the related contents of project risk management, identifies the risk of the oil pipeline project bidding quotation, analyzes the risk factors, and studies the risk in the oil pipeline project bidding quotation through the risk evaluation.Secondly.In this paper, the probability analysis method is used to analyze and study the quotation, the risk model is established, and combining with the actual project, the probability distribution of the quoted price risk is simulated by using the software of @ @ risk risk analysis, and the decision-making of the quoted price risk is carried out and the preventive measures are taken.Finally, the research content and results of this paper are summarized and the next research direction is expounded.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU723.2;TE973

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