基于混凝土抗压强度的弹性模量概率预测模型

发布时间：2018-04-03 11:35

  本文选题：混凝土　切入点：弹性模量　出处：《混凝土》2017年10期

【摘要】：综合考虑主观不确定性和客观不确定性的影响,建立了混凝土弹性模量的概率预测模型。首先基于210组龄期为28 d的混凝土试件的抗压强度和弹性模量的试验数据,以混凝土抗压强度作为控制参数,建立了混凝土弹性模量的确定性预测模型;然后综合考虑主观不确定性和客观不确定性的影响,结合贝叶斯理论和马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法,建立了混凝土弹性模量的概率预测模型;最后通过与试验数据和传统确定性预测模型的对比分析,验证了概率预测模型的有效性和适用性。分析结果表明,该概率预测模型不仅可以合理描述弹性模量的概率分布特性,而且可以校准传统确定性预测模型的置信水平,具有良好的预测精度和适应性。
[Abstract]:Considering the influence of subjective uncertainty and objective uncertainty, the probabilistic prediction model of elastic modulus of concrete is established.Firstly, based on the test data of the compressive strength and elastic modulus of 210 concrete specimens with a age of 28 days, the deterministic prediction model of the elastic modulus of concrete is established by taking the compressive strength of concrete as the control parameter.Then, considering the influence of subjective uncertainty and objective uncertainty, combining Bayesian theory and Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the probabilistic prediction model of concrete elastic modulus is established.Finally, the validity and applicability of the probabilistic prediction model are verified by comparing with the experimental data and the traditional deterministic prediction model.The results show that the probabilistic prediction model not only can reasonably describe the probability distribution of elastic modulus, but also can calibrate the confidence level of the traditional deterministic prediction model. It has good prediction accuracy and adaptability.
【作者单位】： 广西大学土木建筑工程学院工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51368006,51668008) 广西重点实验室系统性研究项目(2013ZDX06)
【分类号】：TU528
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本文编号：1705038