中国建筑能耗时间序列变化趋势及其影响因素

发布时间：2018-04-29 20:09

本文选题：建筑能耗 + 时间序列变化趋势　；参考：《暖通空调》2017年11期

【摘要】：分析了我国建筑能耗时间序列变化趋势,运用LMDI分解方法对我国2001—2014年的建筑能耗进行因素分解,定量分析了这些因素对建筑能耗的影响程度和影响规律。结果表明:我国建筑能耗呈现持续增长趋势,但年均增速在"十一五"和"十二五"期间明显放缓,人口规模因素、城镇化因素、建筑面积因素、行为因素对其增长均具有显著的正向驱动作用,促使建筑能耗累计增长5.05亿t标准煤;建筑能效则对建筑能耗增长具有抑制作用,促使其增幅降低97%,共节约4.88亿t标准煤。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the trend of time series change of building energy consumption in China, analyzes the factor decomposition of building energy consumption in China from 2001 to 2014 by using LMDI decomposition method, and analyzes quantitatively the influence degree and law of these factors on building energy consumption. The results show that the energy consumption of buildings in China shows a sustained growth trend, but the annual average annual growth rate has slowed obviously during the period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan and the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, and the factors of population size, urbanization, building area, and so on. The behavioral factors have a significant positive driving effect on the increase of building energy consumption, which can promote the accumulative increase of building energy consumption by 505 million tons of standard coal, while the building energy efficiency can inhibit the growth of building energy consumption, and make the increase of building energy consumption decrease by 97% and save 488 million tons of standard coal altogether.
【作者单位】：重庆大学;中国建筑节能协会;
【基金】：美国能源基金会项目“中国建筑节能协会能耗数据发布支撑体系研究(一)”(编号:G-1509-23800)
【分类号】：TU111.195

【相似文献】