风速概率分布参数对城市扩展规模的响应

发布时间：2018-05-02 23:14

本文选题：风速 + Weibull分布参数　；参考：《科学通报》2017年Z2期

【摘要】：利用北京、哈尔滨、广州等8个大型城市气象站1985~2014年地面风速定时观测资料、同期再分析资料(NCEP1)以及城市规模指标,每5年为一时间段,分析不同时段风速Weibull分布各参数(k,c,r)的变化及其与城市扩展规模之间的关系.结果表明:(1)风速概率分布参数变化程度与城市规模扩展速度有关;城市化效应使得位置参数r变化最大,尺度参数c次之,而形状参数k变化趋势不明显.(2)尺度参数c随城市建成区面积的增加呈现线性递减趋势,7个站的回归方程通过检验,变化率在-0.0203~-0.0016 km~(-2)之间,意味着随城市规模扩大,风速概率密度曲线分布幅度收窄.(3)位置参数r随建成区面积的增加表现为线性上升趋势,数值由负到正变化,6个站回归方程通过检验,变化率在0.0014~0.0171 km~(-2)之间,意味着城市规模扩大会导致静风、微风频率减小.分析还显示r的变化率与纬度相关良好.(4)以再分析资料拟合参数c_x和r_x,取相对变量c/c_x和r/r_x以表征城市化效应对风参数的影响部分,分析的结果与c,r相似.(5)形状参数k与城市规模指标的相关不显著.
[Abstract]:Using the regular observation data of surface wind speed from 1985 to 2014 at eight large urban meteorological stations such as Beijing, Harbin and Guangzhou, and the simultaneous reanalysis data NCEP1) and the index of urban scale, every five years is a time period. This paper analyzes the variation of Weibull distribution parameters of wind speed in different periods and its relationship with the scale of urban expansion. The results show that the variation degree of probability distribution parameter of wind speed is related to the speed of city scale expansion, the urbanization effect makes the change of position parameter r the biggest, and the scale parameter c is the second. But the change trend of shape parameter k is not obvious.) the scale parameter c shows a linear decreasing trend with the increase of the area of the urban built-up area. The regression equation of 7 stations passes the test, and the change rate is between -0.0203 ~ 0.0016 km2 ~ 2), which means that the change rate increases with the city scale. The distribution amplitude of the wind speed probability density curve is narrowed. The position parameter r shows a linear upward trend with the increase of the area of the built area, and the value varies from negative to positive. The regression equation of 6 stations passes the test, and the change rate is between 0.0014 and 0.0171 km2). This means that the expansion of the size of the city will lead to calm winds and a decrease in the frequency of the breeze. The analysis also showed that the rate of change of r was well correlated with latitude. 4) to reanalyze the data fitting parameters CX and rsp x, the relative variables c/c_x and r/r_x were taken to characterize the effect of urbanization on wind parameters. The correlation between the shape parameter k and the urban scale index is not significant.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心气象灾害教育部重点实验室;中国电力建设集团四川电力设计咨询有限责任公司;新疆维吾尔自治区气象台;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB428505) 国家自然科学基金重点项目(41230528)资助
【分类号】：TU984.113

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