电网工程项目全过程风险识别与评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 23:08

本文选题：电网工程项目 + 风险识别　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：电网是国家重要基础设施,关系经济安全和能源安全。电力是重要的生产资料和生活资料,供电服务覆盖全社会每个行业、企业和家庭。电力发展关系国民经济命脉和国家能源安全。因此电力工程项目风险管理尤为重要,部分企业风险意识不强,对电网工程项目的风险没有进行全面系统的分析与评估,从而导致了电网工程项目在实施过程中,遭受到本来可以避免的损失,不仅影响了工程建设进度和实施效果,也影响了企业健康可持续发展。本文介绍了电网工程项目的一些基本特征,诸如建设周期长、投资数额大、项目复杂度高,从而说明了电网工程项目进行风险识别的必要性。风险识别就是从系统的角度出发,将项目实施过程中面临的直接风险、潜在风险识别出来的过程,同时要分析找出导致这些风险的深层次因素,将这些因素进行分类,找到产生风险的主要因素,并对主要因素发生的概率以及所造成风险的危害进行估计并加以应对。本文将风险识别与电网工程项目相结合,介绍了风险识别的意义和国内外发展现状,提出了电网工程项目全过程风险识别,将电网工程项目划分为六个阶段,对这六个阶段的每个环节进行风险识别,找出引发风险的因素,以及这些因素之间的联系,再从系统角度对这些因素进行评价,从而找到引发风险的主要因素。本文选用了基于多层次模糊综合评价的方法,对发生风险的主要因素进行评价,根据发生风险的概率和风险发生时对项目造成的影响大小,判断出项目存在的风险大小,并在一个实例中对以上方法进行了实际使用,说明了方法的可行性。
[Abstract]:Power grid is an important national infrastructure, related to economic security and energy security. Electricity is an important means of production and means of livelihood, power supply services cover all sectors of society, enterprises and households. Electric power development relates to the lifeblood of national economy and national energy security. Therefore, the risk management of electric power engineering project is particularly important, some enterprises are not aware of the risk, and the risk of the power network project is not analyzed and evaluated systematically, which leads to the implementation of the power grid project in the process of implementation. The loss that could have been avoided not only affects the progress and effect of construction, but also affects the healthy and sustainable development of enterprises. This paper introduces some basic characteristics of power grid engineering projects, such as long construction period, large investment amount and high project complexity, thus explaining the necessity of risk identification in power grid engineering projects. Risk identification is the process of identifying the direct risk and potential risk in the implementation of the project from a systematic point of view. At the same time, it is necessary to analyze and find out the deep-seated factors that lead to these risks, and classify these factors. Find out the main risk factors and estimate the probability of the main factors and the hazards caused by the risk. This paper combines the risk identification with the power grid engineering project, introduces the significance of risk identification and the development situation at home and abroad, puts forward the whole process risk identification of the power network engineering project, and divides the power grid engineering project into six stages. To identify the risk in each of the six stages, to find out the factors that lead to the risk, and the relationship between these factors, and then evaluate these factors from the system point of view, and find out the main factors that lead to the risk. In this paper, based on the method of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the main factors of occurrence risk are evaluated. According to the probability of occurrence of risk and the influence of risk on the project, the size of risk is judged. An example is given to illustrate the feasibility of the method.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU71

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