基于时间序列分析法的软土地基沉降预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 02:31

本文选题：软土地基 + 沉降预测　；参考：《河南工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展,大批农村人口涌入城市致使城市用地越来越紧缺。越来越多的民用和工业高层建筑越来越受人们的关注,高层建筑及一些有特殊要求的建筑物的安全已成为目前急需解决的难题。我国幅员辽阔,地质地貌条件多样,近年来一些机场、粮仓、储油罐、大型钢铁厂等的建设已经转向了具有特殊地质环境的软土地区。要在这些软土地区建造构筑物最重要的就是解决地基沉降和构筑物的稳定问题。随着政府部门对软土地区的开发利用,软土地区建筑物的地基沉降问题不仅影响工程的造价和工程周期更重要的是会影响到整个工程的质量。土体在受到反复荷载之后其最重要的力学性质就是土体的强度和土体的变形,准确的依据土体在长期循环荷载的作用下的变形来判定地基的沉降问题对上部建筑物的影响是目前土木工程领域的主要的研究课题之一。对于建在软土地基上的构筑物在施工之前已经对其进行了相应的地基处理,如超载预压、水泥搅拌桩、挤密砂石桩等。但是对于地基上部的建筑物在使用期间在反复荷载(油罐中油量液面的升降、粮仓中粮食的装载和卸载所带来的荷载的变化)的作用下的地基沉降量的研究很少,因此对于软土地基沉降的预测在实际工程实践中仍然很重要。众所周知,安全和经济是工程中最核心的两个问题,但是要想对建筑物的地基沉降进行准确的预测,使工程在施工安全的同时更加的经济实用是目前需要解决的最大的难题。对于软土地区建筑物的地基沉降问题的研究不仅是一项具有理论意义的课题同时也是一项具有工程实践意义的课题。在实际的工程实践中时间序列分析法的应用极为广泛。由于这种方法操作起来相对比较简单,还可以定时定量的预测事物将来可能的发展趋势,因此对于地基沉降的预测具有很大的实用价值。通过利用时间序列分析法(Eviews软件)对前期的地基沉降数据进行分析研究和预测可以为后期施工过程中选择最优的施工方案提供科学的依据,依据预测结果选择合理的措施预防由于地基沉降引发的工程事故。本文的写作过程主要分为以下几个方面:1.查阅相关的文献资料分析国内外对于地基沉降预测的发展历程,同时深入了解时间序列分析法的作用和应用领域,熟悉时间序列分析法的操作步骤。2.分析地基沉降的变形机理,对已有的预测地基沉降的方法进行归纳总结,并简要的阐述这些预测方法的优缺点以及每种方法的适用条件。3.根据地基沉降的特点并结合时间序列分析法,选取相关的地基沉降观测数据通过Eviews软件建立合适的模型对后期的地基沉降进行预测,在此过程中将详细的论述具体的操作方法和参数判断调整的具体步骤。4.根据最终的预测结果对比实测值分析该预测方法的优缺点和该模型建立的现实意义,并指出本文的不足和需要进一步进行改善的地方。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, a large number of rural population into the city has caused more and more shortage of urban land. More and more civil and industrial high-rise buildings are becoming more and more concerned. The safety of high-rise buildings and some special buildings has become a difficult problem to be solved urgently. The vast territory and geological and geomorphic conditions in China In recent years, the construction of some airports, granaries, storage tanks and large steel mills has turned to soft soil areas with special geological conditions. The most important thing to build structures in these soft soil areas is to solve the problem of foundation settlement and structure stability. With the development and utilization of soft soil areas in the government department, the construction of soft soil area The problem of ground settlement not only affects the cost of the project and the engineering period, but also affects the quality of the whole project. The most important mechanical property of the soil after repeated loads is the strength of the soil and the deformation of the soil, and the settlement of the soil is determined accurately according to the deformation of the soil under the action of long cyclic loading. The effect of the falling problem on the upper building is one of the main research topics in the civil engineering field. For the construction on the soft soil foundation, it has been treated with the corresponding foundation before the construction, such as overloading preloading, cement mixing pile, compaction pile and so on. There are few studies on the settlement of the foundation under the effect of the complex load (the rise of the oil level in the tank, the loading and unloading of the grain in the granary), so it is still very important to predict the settlement of the soft soil foundation in practical engineering. As we all know, the safety and economy are the two most important problems in the project, but it is well known that the settlement of the settlement is the most important problem in the project. In order to predict the foundation settlement of the building accurately, so that the project is more economical and practical at the same time, it is the most difficult problem to be solved at the same time. The research on the settlement of the foundation of the building in the soft soil area is not only a subject of theoretical significance but also a project with practical significance. In practical engineering practice, the application of time series analysis method is very extensive. Because this method is relatively simple to operate, it can also predict the possible future trend of things in time, so it is of great practical value for the prediction of foundation settlement. By using time series analysis (Eviews software), it is very useful. The research and prediction of the foundation settlement data in the period can provide scientific basis for selecting the best construction plan during the construction process, and select reasonable measures according to the prediction results to prevent the engineering accidents caused by foundation settlement. The writing process of this paper is mainly divided into several aspects: 1. consulting related literature data. This paper analyzes the development course of foundation settlement prediction at home and abroad, and deeply understands the function and application fields of time series analysis method. It is familiar with the operation step.2. of time series analysis method to analyze the deformation mechanism of foundation settlement, sum up the existing methods to predict the foundation settlement, and briefly explain the advantages of these prediction methods. .3. based on the characteristics of foundation settlement and the time series analysis method, the relevant ground settlement observation data are selected to predict the later foundation settlement through Eviews software, and the specific operation methods and parameters will be discussed in detail. Sudden.4. analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the prediction method and the practical significance of the model based on the final prediction results compared with the measured values, and points out the shortcomings of this paper and the need for further improvement.
【学位授予单位】：河南工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU447;TU433

【参考文献】