考虑能源、环境影响的住宅建筑节能CGE模型构建

发布时间：2018-06-15 01:04

  本文选题：能源 + 环境　； 参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年05期

【摘要】：中国承诺将于2030年左右使单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%—65%,排放总量达到峰值并争取尽早实现。我国目前的碳排放主要来自工业、交通运输业和建筑业,其中建筑业碳排放约40%,所占比重最大,而高达550亿m2的存量住宅能耗和排放是建筑业碳排放的主力。住宅建筑节能是关系到我国建筑业节能减排目标能否顺利实现的重要因素,是我国节能减排工作的重要领域。构建一个可用于衡量住宅建筑节能对资源环境及经济发展影响的可计算模型是推动住宅建筑节能工作的重要基础。本文尝试以CGE标准模型为基础,依次对住宅建筑生产模块、污染排放模块、节能住宅建筑模块、动态模块和环境福利模块进行详细构建说明。在四方面对标准模型进行扩展:第一,将生产要素扩展为资本、劳动和能源要素束,能源要素束被深化分解为清洁能源与非清洁能源束,然后再予深化细化;第二,依据差异的贸易伙伴将进出口细化为差异的国家和地区;第三,将建筑污染排放作为一个特殊部门,建立建筑污染排放模块,纳入到CGE模型中,并将污染要素纳入到效应函数中;第四,依据资本增长模型,建立动态模块。通过将住宅建筑节能作为变量扩展到标准CGE模型的方法,构建了住宅建筑节能CGE扩展模型。借助该扩展模型,可以研究非节能建筑约束、外部节能建筑与经济增长之间的内在关系,进而破解非节能建筑约束、外部节能建筑与住宅建筑节能快速发展之间难以协调的矛盾。在本文研究成果的基础上,可进一步建立相应的社会核算矩阵(SAM),并对各种函数的参数估计和敏感性检验进行实证分析。
[Abstract]:China is committed to reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60 to 65 per unit of GDP by 2030 or so, peaking emissions and striving to achieve them as soon as possible. China's current carbon emissions mainly come from industry, transportation and construction industry, among which the construction industry carbon emissions are about 40, accounting for the largest proportion, and up to 55 billion m2 of residential energy consumption and emissions are the main carbon emissions of the construction industry. Energy saving in residential buildings is an important factor related to the smooth realization of energy saving and emission reduction targets in China's construction industry and an important field of energy saving and emission reduction work in China. To construct a computable model which can be used to measure the impact of energy conservation in residential buildings on resources, environment and economic development is an important basis for promoting energy conservation in residential buildings. Based on the CGE standard model, this paper attempts to explain the production module of residential building, the pollution emission module, the energy-saving residential building module, the dynamic module and the environmental welfare module in turn. The standard model is extended in four aspects: first, the factors of production are expanded into capital, labor and energy element bundles, the energy factor bundles are decomposed into clean energy and non-clean energy bundles, and then further refined; second, According to the different trading partners, import and export are classified into different countries and regions. Thirdly, building pollution emissions as a special sector are built into the CGE model. The pollution factor is incorporated into the effect function. Fourthly, the dynamic module is established according to the capital growth model. By extending the energy efficiency of residential buildings to the standard CGE model, the CGE expansion model of residential building energy saving is constructed. With the help of the extended model, we can study the internal relationship between the non-energy-saving building constraints, the external energy-efficient building and economic growth, and then solve the non-energy-saving building constraints. The contradiction between external energy-saving building and residential building energy-saving is difficult to coordinate. On the basis of the research results in this paper, the corresponding social accounting matrix can be further established, and the parameter estimation and sensitivity test of various functions can be empirically analyzed.
【作者单位】： 同济大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：上海市科技发展基金课题“特大型城市低碳化的系统结构研究”(批准号:10692103000)
【分类号】：TU241.91
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本文编号：2019819