大中城市总体规划人口预测的几个问题及反思——以四川省17个地级市为例

发布时间：2018-06-29 08:27

本文选题：城市总体规划 + 人口预测　；参考：《现代城市研究》2017年08期

【摘要】：在土地财政的"绑架"下,城市总体规划中人口预测规模普遍存在偏大的问题,评估了省域城镇体系规划制定的人口规模对下层次城市总规编制的指导效果,发现2000年左右编制的省域城镇体系规划对城镇化率预测普遍偏低,且编制时间与下层次城市总规修编时间交叉,在下层次城市总规编制过程中,省域城镇体系规划制定的目标没有起到指导与约束作用。进而以四川省17个地级市为例,分析了最新版总体规划中人口预测存在的问题,包括统计及计算口径不清晰、"刻意"提高城镇化率、预测人口规模偏大等主要问题,最后,针对性地提出解决思路与对策。
[Abstract]:Under the "kidnapping" of land finance, the problem of population prediction in urban master planning is generally on the large side. This paper evaluates the guiding effect of the population scale of provincial urban system planning on the formulation of urban master plan at the lower level. It is found that the provincial urban system planning about the year 2000 is generally low in predicting the urbanization rate, and the time of compiling and revising the urban master plan of the lower level is intersected, and it is in the process of compiling the urban master plan at the lower level. The goal of provincial urban system planning has not played a guiding and restrictive role. Then taking 17 prefecture-level cities in Sichuan Province as an example, this paper analyzes the problems existing in the population prediction in the latest version of the master plan, including unclear statistics and calculation, "deliberately" increasing the urbanization rate, and predicting the population size. Finally, Put forward the solution thought and countermeasure pertinently.
【作者单位】：西安建筑科技大学建筑学院;
【分类号】：TU984.11

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