风电场建设项目招投标风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-09-17 20:14

【摘要】：随着我国经济的不断发展,电力体制改革的不断深入以及风电技术的不断进步,风力发电的装机容量发展势头较快,对于风电场建设项目的要求也越来越高。目前大多数风电场建设项目采用招投标的方式来进行,在此工作过程中,会出现许多未预料到的突发情况,从而会产生风电场建设项目的招投标工作的不确定性及风险性,因此,针对风电场建设项目开展的招投标风险研究显得愈发重要。建立一套系统、全面的风电场建设项目招投标风险评价体系,准确评估风电场建设项目的招投标风险大小,并运用相应的风险管理手段和策略来规避招投标风险是当前亟待解决的问题。本文应用风险管理基本理论,构建了风电场建设项目的招投标风险评价体系,并使用序关系法、特征值法、集值迭代法分别来确定不同层次的指标权重。其次,基于可拓物元分析方法和多级模糊综合评价方法对X风电场建设项目的招投标工作进行了实证研究,论证了招投标风险评价模型的可行性。最后,提出了基于不同阶段的风电场建设项目的招投标风险管理策略和风险管理手段,为今后的招投标工作的风险评价和顺利开展提供一定的政策建议。研究表明:X风电场建设项目的招投标风险的等级为较大,并且影响招投标工作的主要风险因素产生于招投标准备阶段。同时,基于不同阶段,采取不同的风电场建设项目招投标风险管理策略和风险管理手段,可以尽可能的降低招投标风险发生的概率,提高招投标管理工作的有效性。
[Abstract]:With the development of our economy, the deepening of electric power system reform and the development of wind power technology, the installed capacity of wind power is developing rapidly, and the requirements of wind farm construction project are becoming higher and higher. At present, most wind farm construction projects are carried out by way of bidding. In the process of this work, there will be many unexpected emergencies, which will lead to the uncertainty and risk of bidding for wind farm construction projects. Therefore, the research of bidding risk for wind farm construction project becomes more and more important. Set up a set of system, comprehensive wind farm construction project bidding risk evaluation system, accurately assess the wind farm construction project bidding risk, It is an urgent problem to use the corresponding risk management methods and strategies to avoid the bidding risk. Based on the basic theory of risk management, this paper constructs a risk evaluation system for wind farm construction projects, and uses order relation method, eigenvalue method and set value iterative method to determine the index weights of different levels. Secondly, based on extension matter element analysis method and multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the bidding work of X wind farm construction project is studied empirically, and the feasibility of bidding risk evaluation model is demonstrated. Finally, the paper puts forward the risk management strategy and means of bidding based on different stages of wind farm construction project, which provides some policy suggestions for the risk evaluation and smooth development of bidding work in the future. The research shows that the grade of bidding risk in the construction project of the wind farm is large, and the main risk factors affecting bidding work come from the stage of bidding preparation. At the same time, according to different stages, adopting different risk management strategies and risk management methods of wind farm construction project, we can reduce the probability of bidding risk as far as possible and improve the effectiveness of bidding management.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU723.2

【参考文献】