基于逻辑回归和层次分析法的供水网络失效风险及后果评价

发布时间：2023-01-01 16:01

　　在城市给水管网系统中,管道是一个非常重要的组成部分。泄漏和爆管是显示管网状态的非常有用的指示参数。爆管和泄漏可能会降低管道的供水能力,并增加给水管网系统受污染的机会。供水公用事业在维护上消耗了大量的预算。因此,对这些爆管进行评价是非常重要的。为了保持和改善供水系统的性能,对系统的现状和未来状况进行评估,以便作出更换、修复和维修的决策是非常必要的。爆管状况的评估是一项复杂的工作,部分原因是缺乏完整的维修记录和现场确定爆管及其与恶化过程的关系。在本文的评估中,考虑了两个因素,即失效概率（爆管的可能性）和失效后果。根据不同的爆管修复数据,结合当地的特点,建立了爆管风险失效概率模型。所采用的方法为logistic回归分析,该模型的目的是寻找未来管道破裂的可能性,确定对爆管可能性影响最大的参数。数据包括管径、管材、铺设深度、路面宽度和管龄。用于分析的数据集来自中国的一个主要城市,这些数据包括近40年来检测到的近127,764次突发事件中包含的约148,676段管段数据。失效后果（COF）模型采用基于专家意见的加权和多准则决策方法,对突发管道失效的经济、社会和环境后果进行评估。该模型将包括经济影响... 

【文章页数】：94 页

【学位级别】：硕士

【文章目录】：
摘要
Abstract
Chapter1 Introduction
    1.1 Background,Scope and Research objective of the Work
        1.1.1 Background
        1.1.2 Causes and Effect of Pipe failures
        1.1.3 Physical modeling of pipe bursts
        1.1.4 Difference between pipe bursts and leaks
        1.1.5 Scope of the study
        1.1.6 Research objective
    1.2 Selection of site
        1.2.1 Site description
    1.3 Overview of Manuscript
Chapter2 Consideration of the Documents
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Water pipe condition and burst prediction
    2.3 Previous statistical modelling approach
    2.4 Analytical Statistical Models for Pipe Bursts Failures
        2.4.1 Aggregate type models
        2.4.2 Multiple regression type models
    2.5 Previous Analytic Hierarchy Models
    2.6 Summary
Chapter3 Methodology
    3.1 Introduction
    3.2 Optimization of failure probability weight model
        3.2.1 Model roughing
        3.2.2 Model optimization
        3.2.3 Distribution Assumption
        3.2.4 Variable Definitions
    3.3 Analytic hierarchy process(AHP)
        3.3.1 The construction of Judgement Matrix
        3.3.2 Weight Calculation
        3.3.3 Conformity Test
        3.3.4 Hierarchical sorting and calculating the total weight
    3.4 Summary
Chapter4 Analysis and Findings
    4.1 Results of assessment model development of Prob PB
        4.1.1 Effect of Diameter on Pipe burst
        4.1.2 Effect of Material on Pipe burst
        4.1.3 Effect of Age on Pipe burst
    4.2 Evaluation of bursts condition by AHP
    4.3 Pairwise comparison matrices and weight coefficients
    4.4 Consistency analysis
    4.5 Importance weights of criteria and factors in the AHP model
    4.6 Calculation of evaluation scores and discussion
    4.7 The pie chart representation of analysis results
        4.7.1 Analysis of existing data of pipe burst in 2015
        4.7.2 Analysis of existing data of pipe burst in 2016
        4.7.3 Analysis of existing data of pipe burst in 2017
    4.8 Summary
Conclusion
References
Acknowledgements
Resume



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