GM（1，1）模型下伦敦世界田径锦标赛冠军成绩预测及近六届发展态势分析

发布时间：2019-05-08 23:39

【摘要】：随着社会的发展和国际文化的不断交流,使得田径运动在世界各地得到广泛的传播与发展。田径运动是由跑、跳、投等综合性运动项目组成的,特别是在大型的综合性国际运动会中,田径运动占的总运动项目的比例最大,因此有“得田径者得天下”的说法,由此可见田径运动在综合性运动会上的重要性。而世界田径锦标赛是田径运动中较高级别的田径竞赛运动会之一,其成绩的好坏不仅在一定程度上反应一个国家的田径运动水平,而且还关系到一个国家是否能在世界综合性运动会中取得好成绩。2015年我国成功举办了第十五届世界田径锦标赛,我国运动员以东道主的角色在比赛中发挥出色,与上几届成绩相比有了较大的进步。为更好地了解我国运动员的田径竞技水平和备战下一届世界田径锦标赛,对下一届世锦赛各单项的第一名成绩进行了预测,对不同项群的发展态势进行了初步分析：一是运用了文献资料、数理统计、逻辑推理和灰色预测的方法,以第十届到第十五届前三名的平均成绩分析世界田径锦标赛在这段时期内各项目的发展态势,以及第一名成绩的发展系数a值下各单项的总体发展趋势。二是以第十届到第十五届的各单项第一名成绩为原始数据建立多个维度的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,并对多个维度的预测模型进行检验,选择检验合格且精度较高的作为最终的预测模型。主要得出如下结论：(1)十六届世界田径锦标赛第一名的成绩预测初步结果见表4-1l、表4-12。(2)男子跳跃项目,他的整体成绩处在下降的趋势,男子投掷项目除铁饼外,其余投掷项目均属于成绩提高的发展趋势,女子投掷项目除铅球项目成绩有所下降外,其余投掷项目成绩均有所提高,女子短跑项目有所提高,中长跑项目有所下降。(3)建议将男子20公里竞走、女子铅球列为下一届奖牌必夺的项目,将男子4*100米项目列为重点突破发展的项目。将男子110m栏,女子20km竞走、10000m、3000m、链球列为有争夺奖牌实力的项目,将男子跳高、跳远,女子标枪、1500m、铁饼、马拉松逐渐发展为优势项目。
[Abstract]:With the development of society and the continuous exchange of international culture, track and field has been widely spread and developed all over the world. Track and field is composed of running, jumping, throwing and other comprehensive sports, especially in large-scale comprehensive international sports, track and field accounts for the largest proportion of the total sports, so there is a saying that "track and field people get the world". We can see the importance of track and field in the comprehensive sports meet. And the World Athletics Championships is one of the higher-level track and field competitions in track and field, and its results not only reflect the level of track and field in a country to a certain extent. Moreover, it is also related to whether a country can achieve good results in the World Comprehensive Games. In 2015, China successfully held the 15th World Athletic Championships, and our athletes played an outstanding role as host in the competition. Compared with the previous years, there has been a great improvement. In order to better understand the level of track and field competition of Chinese athletes and prepare for the next World Athletic Championships, the first results of each individual event in the next World Championships are predicted. This paper makes a preliminary analysis of the development trend of different item groups: first, it uses the methods of literature, mathematical statistics, logical reasoning and grey prediction, and makes use of the methods of literature, mathematical statistics, logical reasoning and grey prediction. The development trend of each event in the world track and field championships during this period is analyzed with the average results of the top three from the 10th to the 15th, and the general development trend of each item under the value of the development coefficient a of the first prize is analyzed. Second, the grey prediction GM (1,1) model of multiple dimensions is established based on the first grade of each single item from the tenth to the fifteenth session, and the prediction model of multiple dimensions is tested. Select the qualified and high precision as the final prediction model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the preliminary results of the results forecast for the first place in the 16th World Athletic Championships are shown in Table 4-1l, Table 4-12. (2) the men's jumping events, his overall achievements are in a downward trend. Men's throwing events except discus, the rest of the throwing events belong to the development trend of improving results. Except for the drop in the achievements of the women's throwing events, the results of the rest of the throwing events have improved, and the women's sprint events have improved. (3) the men's 20-kilometer race is recommended, the women's shot put is listed as the next medal-winning event, and the men's 4-100-meter event is listed as the key breakthrough development event. (3) it is suggested that the men's 20-kilometer race be listed as the next medal-winning event. Men's 110m hurdle, women's 20km race walk, 10000m, 3000m, chain ball are listed as events with the ability to compete for medals, and men's high jump, long jump, women's javelin, 1500m, discus and marathon have gradually developed into dominant events.
【学位授予单位】：扬州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：G82

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