人口政策调整后学前教育适龄人口变动趋势与教育需求分析

发布时间：2018-05-11 23:33

本文选题：“单独二孩”政策 + 人口预测　；参考：《全球教育展望》2014年09期

【摘要】：随着"单独二孩"政策的启动以及第一代独生子女进入生育年龄,中国将迎来新一轮"婴儿潮"。人口政策变动将对学前教育适龄人口规模及分布产生较大影响,须提前规划。分城乡预测学龄人口是制定教育发展规划的信息基础,本文基于第六次人口普查数据,对2013-2030年城乡学前教育阶段学龄人口进行预测。研究发现,2017年以前是学前教育发展的"机会窗口",若错过,则会在2017年迎来学龄人口高峰后面临异常严峻的挑战和困难;由于我国正处于城镇化加速期,城镇学前教育需求受人口政策影响更大,特别在2017-2020年间,城镇学前教育需求规模增速超过农村,尽管农村地区面临供需缺口同样巨大。在分析学前教育阶段适龄人口变动趋势与教育需求的基础上,本文进一步提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:China faces a new wave of baby boomers as the "single child" policy starts and the first generation of only children reaches childbearing age. The change of population policy will have a great impact on the population size and distribution of pre-school education age, and it should be planned ahead of time. The prediction of school-age population in urban and rural areas is the information basis for the formulation of educational development plan. Based on the data of the sixth census, this paper forecasts the school-age population of pre-school education in urban and rural areas in 2013-2030. The study found that before 2017 is the "window of opportunity" for the development of pre-school education, if missed, it will face extremely severe challenges and difficulties after the peak of the school-age population in 2017; as China is in an accelerating period of urbanization, The demand for pre-school education in urban areas is more affected by population policy, especially in 2017-2020, the scale of demand for pre-school education in urban areas exceeds that in rural areas, although the gap between supply and demand in rural areas is also huge. On the basis of analyzing the changing trend of the school-age population and the educational demand in preschool education, this paper puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学教育学部教育经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金教育学重大(点)课题“跨越中等收入陷阱:教育的作用研究”(项目编号:AFA110002)研究成果
【分类号】：G619.2

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