长春市主城区商品住宅价格影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 01:40

本文选题：长春市　切入点：商品住宅价格　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放三十多年来,中国经济发生了翻天覆地的变化,人民生活水平不断提高,随之而来的是人们住房观念的更新与改变。1998年起,我国正式取消福利分房制度,住房逐渐从一种福利待遇转变成为一种商品而被人熟知,与此同时商品住宅市场应运而生。经过多年的发展,房地产行业已经逐渐成为我国支柱型产业,年销售额可以达到万亿水平。但是在房地产市场高速发展的背后,却有越来越多的问题随之暴露出来,这其中最为大家所关注的就是商品住宅价格过高的问题。国家相关部门针对商品住宅价格过高的问题多次出台宏观调控政策进行调控,试图将商品住宅价格稳定在合理范围之内,但是整体上收效甚微。因此,如何缓解商品住宅价格上涨过快,将商品住宅价格稳定在合理范围内成为各方学者和政府相关部门关注的焦点。本文在充分梳理国内外关于商品住宅价格影响因素文献基础上,将研究区域设定为长春市主城区,利用2003-2014年相关数据对长春市商品住宅市场发展现状及商品住宅价格进行研究,确定其影响因素。本文首先定性分析长春市商品住宅市场发展现状,结合城区特点确定影响因素范围。利用统计分析中常用的Granger因果分析模型对可能存在影响的各类因素进行定量分析,从中找出真正影响长春市商品住宅价格的原因。在此基础上,利用灰色关联分析模型对确定与商品住宅价格相关的影响因素做进一步分析,探究各类影响因素对于商品住宅价格的影响程度。本文得出以下结论:(1)长春市商品住宅市场近年来保持着良好的上升态势,价格稳中有升,供给量持续旺盛。(2)根据商品住宅价格形成机制结合长春市实际情况,确定影响长春市商品住宅价格的因素主要有七个,分别是商品住宅用地出让价格、城市GDP总量、人均可支配收入、市区人口数量、房地产投资额、商品房施工面积以及五年以上银行商业贷款利率。(3)通过ADF检验以及Granger因果关系分析对确定的七个影响因素进行研究,研究结果显示真正与长春市商品住宅价格有相关性的因素是城市GDP总量、商品房施工面积以及五年以上银行商业贷款利率。(4)利用灰色关联分析模型进一步研究,结果表明对长春市商品住宅价格影响最大的是城市GDP总量,关联程度达到0.9321;其次是五年以上银行商业贷款利率,关联程度达到0.8699;影响最小的是商品房施工面积,关联程度为0.6293。针对上述研究结果,结合长春市房地产市场发展现状,本文认为完善土地出让制度、加强居住用地价格宏观调控;明确商品住宅居住属性、完善投资产品类型;建立良好的房地产市场运行秩序;加大刚需类住房、廉租房、经济适用房的建设规模是保证长春市商品住宅市场平稳有序发展的必要措施。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has undergone earth-shaking changes, and the living standards of the people have been continuously improved, which has been followed by the renewal and change of people's housing concepts. Since 1998, China has formally abolished the welfare housing division system.Housing has gradually changed from a welfare treatment to a commodity, at the same time, the commodity housing market came into being.After years of development, the real estate industry has gradually become a pillar industry in China, the annual sales can reach trillion level.But behind the rapid development of the real estate market, there are more and more problems exposed.According to the problem of excessive commodity housing prices, the relevant departments of the state have issued macroeconomic control policies for many times, trying to stabilize the commodity housing prices within a reasonable range, but the overall effect is very little.Therefore, how to alleviate the rapid rise of commodity housing prices and stabilize the commodity housing prices within a reasonable range has become the focus of attention of scholars and government departments.On the basis of combing the domestic and foreign literature on the influencing factors of commodity housing prices, this paper sets the research area as the main urban area of Changchun City, and studies the current situation of commodity housing market development and commodity housing prices in Changchun City by using the relevant data from 2003 to 2014.Determine the influencing factors.This paper first qualitatively analyzes the current situation of the commercial housing market in Changchun, and determines the range of influencing factors according to the characteristics of the urban area.By using the Granger causality analysis model which is commonly used in statistical analysis, this paper makes quantitative analysis of various factors which may have an impact on the real commodity housing prices in Changchun.On this basis, the grey relational analysis model is used to further analyze the influence factors related to the commodity housing price, and to explore the influence degree of various factors on the commodity housing price.This paper draws the following conclusions: (1) the commodity housing market in Changchun has maintained a good upward trend in recent years, with a steady rise in price and a continuous exuberant supply. 2) according to the commodity housing price formation mechanism combined with the actual situation of Changchun,There are mainly seven factors that affect the commodity housing prices in Changchun. They are the selling price of commercial residential land, the total amount of urban GDP, the per capita disposable income, the number of urban population, the investment of real estate.Commercial housing construction area and commercial loan interest rate of more than five years are studied by ADF test and Granger causality analysis.The results show that the real correlation with the commodity housing prices in Changchun is the total amount of urban GDP, the construction area of commercial housing and the interest rate of commercial loans of banks over five years.The results show that the largest impact on the commodity housing price in Changchun is the total amount of urban GDP, the correlation degree is 0.9321, the next is the interest rate of commercial loans of banks over five years, the correlation degree is 0.8699, and the least impact is the construction area of commercial housing, the correlation degree is 0.6293.In view of the above research results, combined with the development of real estate market in Changchun, this paper thinks that the system of land transfer should be improved, the price of residential land should be controlled macroscopically, the residential attributes of commercial housing should be defined, and the types of investment products should be improved.It is necessary to establish a good real estate market operation order, increase the rigid demand for housing, low-rent housing, comfortable housing construction scale to ensure the smooth and orderly development of Changchun commodity housing market.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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