我国商业健康保险公司价值评估研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 02:27

本文选题：健康保险 + 价值评估　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自从1982年,伴随着我国的保险业务恢复,商业健康保险业务也经历了一个从无到有、突飞猛进的发展阶段,尤其是2005年以后,陆续成立了人保健康、平安健康、昆仑健康、和谐健康等四家专门从事健康保险业务的公司,标志着我国健康保险市场开始踏上专业化经营的道路。而截至2011年,在我国经营健康保险业务的保险公司共有95家,分别为外资寿险公司28家,中资寿险公司33家,财险公司30家以及专业健康保险公司4家。商业健康保险的保费收入也从1999年的36.5亿元增加到2011年的691.72亿元。我国商业健康保险业务已取得可喜的成绩。健康保险公司要想在未来获得更好的发展,就必须做好自身的经营管理,而做好经营管理就必须准确地评估出自身的价值,而价值评估不仅仅只是得出一个数字,首先,健康保险公司可以以此数值为业绩考核的重要参考指标；其次,在价值评估的过程中,健康保险公司可以从其中获得很多中间信息,认清价值来源,从而采取有针对性的措施提升自身价值,有助于企业经营的目的---价值最大化的实现；第三,我国健康保险市场正处于蓬勃发展的阶段,监管者出于维护消费者权益、保证保险市场持续有效运行的目的,也需要对健康保险公司的价值进行管控与监督；最后,由于一般传统价值评估方法不适于我国健康保险公司,采用适合健康保险业务的评估方法得出的价值更符合投资者以及利益相关者的要求。基于以上的理由,为了保证健康保险行业更快更好地发展,准确有效的价值评估必不可少。目前,国内对健康保险公司价值进行研究的文献极少,本文首先探讨了保险公司价值的概念和价值评估的重要性,并结合健康保险的特征和当前我国健康保险公司所处的市场环境,总结了国外健康保险公司常用的三种价值评估方法：市场法、现值法和内含价值法,紧接着对这三种方法的优缺点以及适用的条件进行了分析,并结合了我国当前国情,同时对自由现金流量模型提出应该参照内含价值法评估新业务价值,最终得出结论是当前最适合我国健康保险公司进行价值评估的方法是内含价值法,同时也需要结合自由现金流量模型的评估结果进行考虑,待时机成熟时也可以参考市场法的评估结果。笔者使用自由现金流量模型、内含价值法、市盈率法对人保健康保险公司进行了实证价值评估研究,价值评估的最终目的是实现公司价值最大化,尽可能提升公司价值,因此,文章的最后对我国健康保险公司提出了价值提升的相关建议。本文的主要内容和结构安排如下：第一章主要详细阐述了论文的选题背景,研究意义,研究的目的、内容与方法,文献综述和论文的主要贡献与不足,并对健康保险公司价值评估相关文献进行了总结与归纳。文章主要采用从一般到特殊的研究思路,根据健康保险业务可以分为长期业务和短期业务的特点,研究出对健康保险公司进’行价值评估的关键在于认清健康保险的业务特征、行业发展、特殊的假设条件和长期业务的价值评估。第二章通过对健康保险公司公司价值评估的研究,得出进行健康保险公司价值评估必须了解其净利润或者盈利能力。笔者从健康保险产品及其特征入手,得出健康保险在进行价值评估时面临净利润预计困难、产品形态复杂、精算假设主观性强、行业发展前景不明朗等难点,并借鉴和分析了国外健康保险公司常用的三种主流价值评估方法。第三章从我国健康保险公司的经营现状入手,在国外健康保险公司价值评估方法的基础上,对这些方法在我国的适用性进行了分析。笔者发现,它们在我国实务中均会有不适之处,从而导致最终评估结果的准确性受到影响。如：由于缺乏公开活跃的市场和缺乏可比公司,市场法暂时不适合作为我国健康保险公司的价值评估方法；而又由于我国健康保险公司大多亏损和保险公司净利润的预测极为困难,并会低估长期业务的价值,自由现金流量模型必须做出一定的修正；从理论上说,内含价值是比较适合用于健康保险公司价值评估的,但由于计算方法复杂和我国健康保险发展地区差异性较大等原因,实务中,内含价值法极为复杂,接着分析了健康保险使用内含价值时所需要考虑的一些特殊的假设。最后,笔者认为在三种方法中,内含价值法是最适合我国当前国情的并且通过内含价值的评估,健康保险公司能够认识到价值的源泉,从而为采取措施实现公司价值最大化提升提供了可能性。第四章,由于我国健康保险公司数据采集十分困难,并且精算报告被视为商业机密不予公布,笔者只能以中国最大的专业健康保险公司—中国人民健康保险公司(文中简称人保健康)为例,根据其2010年和2011年年报的数据,运用市盈率法、内含价值法和自由现金流量模型分别计算其价值。实证显示,由自有现金流量模型做出的结果为负数,其原因是公司处于行业的起步期,利润情况极不稳定,难以有效评估出未来盈利状况。市盈率法与内含价值法做出的结果较接近。综合分析之后,得出内含价值法适合我国健康保险公司现阶段的价值评估,另两种方法可作为适当的补充。最后,笔者对三种评估方法进行了小结,并尝试从政府和保险公司管理层两方面提出了有助于我国健康保险公司价值提升的建议。本文的主要的贡献表现在题目较为新颖,并且对我国健康保险公司发展有一定的帮助,随着市场经济的发展,价值评估对于公司意义重大,但是,国内对健康保险公司的价值评估进行讨论的文献极少。因此,本文较新颖并且有一定的现实意义。此外,笔者在写作过程中,注重总结、归纳与思考,总结并探讨了影响健康保险公司价值评估的主要因素,并在总结与借鉴国外健康保险公司价值评估经验的基础上,结合我国国情,尝试提出适合我国健康保险公司价值评估的方法以及价值提升的相关建议。但是由于笔者自身水平不够、时间有限和健康保险公司价值评估的实务中的具体做法的保密性,文章有许多不足之处,如对内含价值法分析较浅,无法对健康保险公司运用内含价值法做实证,并且对价值评估方法的分析欠缺实务中的经验与考虑。希望笔者以后有时间和机会将本文的不足逐步完善。
[Abstract]:Since 1982, with the recovery of the insurance business in China, the business health insurance business has also experienced a stage of rapid development. Especially after 2005, four companies specializing in health insurance, such as health, health, health, harmony and health in Kunlun, have marked the health insurance of our country. As of 2011, there were 95 insurance companies operating health insurance in China, including 28 foreign life insurance companies, 33 Chinese life insurance companies, 30 financial and insurance companies and 4 professional health insurance companies. The premium income of commercial health insurance increased from 3 billion 650 million yuan to 20 in 1999. 11 years of 69 billion 172 million yuan. China's commercial health insurance business has made gratifying achievements.
If health insurance companies want to get better development in the future, they must do their own management, and doing business management must accurately assess their own value, and value evaluation is not just a number. First, health insurance companies can count as the important reference index of performance assessment; secondly, In the process of value evaluation, health insurance companies can obtain a lot of intermediate information, recognize the source of value, and take targeted measures to improve their own value and help the purpose of business operation - the realization of the maximization of value. Third, the health insurance market in China is in the stage of vigorous development, and the supervisor is out of maintenance. The interests of consumers and the purpose of ensuring the sustainable and effective operation of the insurance market are also required to control and supervise the value of the health insurance companies. Finally, the value of the evaluation method suitable for the health insurance business is more consistent with the investor and the interest, because the general traditional value evaluation method is not suitable for the health insurance companies of our country. On the basis of the above reasons, accurate and effective value assessment is essential to ensure a faster and better development of the health insurance industry.
At present, there are few literature on the value of health insurance companies in China. This paper first discusses the concept of the value of the insurance company and the importance of the value evaluation, and combines the characteristics of health insurance and the market environment of the current health insurance companies in China, and summarizes the three methods of value evaluation commonly used by foreign health insurance companies: Market law, present value method and intrinsic value method are used to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods and the applicable conditions, and combine the current national conditions of our country. At the same time, the free cash flow model should be put forward to evaluate the new business value with reference to the internal value method. Finally, the conclusion is that the most suitable for our health insurance company is to be carried out at present. The method of value evaluation is internal value method, and it also needs to be considered in combination with the evaluation results of free cash flow model. When the opportunity is ripe, it can also refer to the evaluation results of market law. The author uses the free cash flow model, the internal value method and the price earnings ratio method to carry out empirical value evaluation on the human health insurance company. The ultimate aim of the value assessment is to maximize the value of the company and to improve the value of the company as much as possible. Therefore, the last part of the article puts forward some suggestions on the improvement of the value of our health insurance company. The main contents and structure of this paper are as follows:
The first chapter mainly expounds the background, significance, purpose, content and method of the research, the main contributions and shortcomings of the literature review and paper, and summarizes and summarizes the related literature of the health insurance company. The article mainly adopts the general to special research ideas, according to the health insurance business can It is divided into the characteristics of long-term business and short term business. The key to the assessment of the entry value of health insurance companies is to identify the business characteristics of health insurance, the development of the industry, the special assumptions and the value assessment of the long-term business.
The second chapter, through the study of the value evaluation of the health insurance company, concludes that the value assessment of the health insurance company must understand its net profit or profitability. From the health insurance products and its characteristics, the author draws the conclusion that health insurance is faced with the difficulties of net profit, the complex product form and the actuarial hypothesis. It is difficult to observe the nature of the industry and the development prospect of the industry. It also draws lessons from the analysis of three mainstream valuation methods commonly used by foreign health insurance companies.
The third chapter, starting with the management status of health insurance companies in China, analyses the applicability of these methods in our country on the basis of the valuation methods of foreign health insurance companies. The author finds that they all have discomfort in our country's practice, which leads to the impact of the accuracy of the final evaluation results. For example, because of the shortage of the results. Lack of open market and lack of comparable companies, market law is temporarily unsuitable for the value evaluation method of China's health insurance companies, but because most of the loss of our health insurance companies and the forecast of the net profit of insurance companies are extremely difficult and will underestimate the value of long-term business, the free cash flow model must be made to a certain extent. In theory, the intrinsic value is more suitable for the value assessment of the health insurance company, but in practice, the intrinsic value method is very complex in practice because of the complexity of the calculation method and the large difference in the development area of the health insurance in our country. Then, it analyzes some special fake which the health insurance needs to consider in the use of the intrinsic value. Finally, the author thinks that in the three methods, the internal value method is the most suitable for our country's current national conditions and through the assessment of the intrinsic value, the health insurance company can recognize the source of value, thus providing the possibility to take measures to maximize the value of the company.
In the fourth chapter, because the data collection of our health insurance company is very difficult and the actuarial report is considered to be not published, the author can only use the P / E method according to the data of its 2010 and 2011 Annual Reports, for example, China's largest professional health insurance company, the Chinese people's health insurance company (the article is referred to as the health insurance for short). The value of internal value method and free cash flow model are calculated respectively. The results show that the result is negative. The reason is that the company is in the start period of the industry, the profit situation is very unstable, and it is difficult to effectively evaluate the future profit. The price earnings method is close to the results of the internal value method. After analysis, it is concluded that the embedded value method is suitable for the valuation of health insurance companies in China at present stage, and the other two methods can be used as an appropriate supplement.
Finally, the author makes a summary of the three evaluation methods, and tries to put forward some suggestions from the two aspects of the government and the management of the insurance companies to help the health insurance companies in China to improve their value.
The main contributions of this paper are new and helpful to the development of health insurance companies in China. With the development of the market economy, the value assessment is of great significance to the company. However, there are few literature in China to discuss the value assessment of health insurance companies. In addition, in the process of writing, the author pays attention to summing up, summarizing and thinking, summarizes and discusses the main factors that affect the value evaluation of health insurance companies. On the basis of summarizing and drawing lessons from the experience of the value assessment of foreign health insurance companies and combining with the national conditions of our country, the author tries to put forward a method suitable for the evaluation of the value of health insurance companies in our country. But because of the inadequacy of the author's own level, limited time and the secrecy of the practice of the health insurance company's value assessment, the article has many shortcomings, such as the shallow analysis of the internal value method, and the inability to use the intrinsic value method for the health insurance company to make an empirical study and to evaluate the value of the value method. The analysis of law is short of practical experience and consideration. I hope that I will have time and opportunity to improve the shortcomings of this article.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F842.3

【参考文献】