在位者产能投资及其进入阻止效应失灵的多维分析——基于中国乘用车产业的经验证据

发布时间：2018-01-20 06:19

本文关键词： 在位者产能投资进入阻止效应乘用车产业　出处：《财经问题研究》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：产业组织的理论和实证研究表明在位者对过剩生产能力进行投资,会在产量竞争中取得先动优势,预期价格和利润下降会使进入者面临更高的进入壁垒,从而使产能投资具有进入阻止效应。本文从理论模型、计量检验和案例分析三个维度出发,分析中国乘用车制造企业的产能投资行为。两阶段博弈模型证明,需求不确定和在位者数量增加会导致进入阻止成为一种公共产品,不利于产能投资发挥进入阻止效应;基于Logit回归的检验发现,在位者的前一期投资没有体现出进入阻止效应;案例研究表明,由于缺乏有效的协调机制,能力和动机存在明显差异的在位者,也未能利用产能策略维持已有市场地位和减少大规模进入所产生的负面效应。
[Abstract]:The theoretical and empirical studies of industrial organization show that the incumbent investing in excess production capacity will obtain the first-mover advantage in the production competition, and it is expected that the decline of price and profit will make the entrant face higher barriers to entry. From the three dimensions of theoretical model, econometric test and case analysis, this paper analyzes the capacity investment behavior of passenger car manufacturing enterprises in China. The two-stage game model is proved. The uncertainty of demand and the increase of the number of incumbents will lead to entry blocking into a public good, which is not conducive to the investment of capacity to play an entry blocking effect; Based on the Logit regression test, it is found that the previous investment of the incumbent does not reflect the entry blocking effect. The case study shows that due to the lack of effective coordination mechanism, the incumbent who has obvious differences in ability and motivation can not use capacity strategy to maintain the existing market position and reduce the negative effects of large-scale entry.
【作者单位】：复旦大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“价值链不对称嵌入情境下本土轿车企业优化纵向组织结构的战略研究与应用”(71372114) 教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“本土轿车制造企业自主产品开发的多案例比较研究”(12YJA630003)
【分类号】：F426.471
【正文快照】： 一、问题的提出目前供给侧结构性改革已经进入巩固去产能政策初步成果的阶段,在使用行政手段关、停、并、转大量低效低能企业的同时,主管部门开始鼓励和扶持诸如“宝钢和武钢”“神华和国电”“南车和北车”等大型企业之间的兼并重组,一个主要目标是通过大型企业市场势力和生

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