农业规划区内主导产业优选方法集成研究

发布时间：2018-01-25 21:02

本文关键词： 农业规划主导产业优选方法理论模型流程图设计与软件开发实测分析　出处：《中国农业科学院》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着我国经济社会发展进入新常态,传统农业正向现代农业过渡。农业规划在农业现代化发展中发挥着规范指导和引领作用,越来越受到企业和各级政府的重视。农业规划实操中,区域农业主导产业的优选是规划者需要解决的核心问题之一,明确规划区域内需要发展的主导产业才能有效整合农业资源、延长产业链、优化产业结构,对区内“三农”问题产生统领性的把控。在传统的农业规划方法中,主导产业的选择多依赖于规划者的经验、当地领导者的意见和企业家的偏好,亟需大力研发“农业规划区内主导产业优选方法”并制成辅助软件,提供农业规划手段与技术的突破。本文在总结国内外研究进展的前提下,对主导产业优选的理论与方法进行了系统梳理,为优选方法体系的研究奠定了基础。区域农业主导产业优选方法体系研究通过三个过程实现:理论模型构建、流程图设计与软件开发、软件的实测。理论模型从区域已有产业与区域引入产业两类产业入手,选择了政策、社会、经济、资源环境4类规划影响度较高的一、二级指标,使用了6类具有引领带动价值的产业评价因素及子因素,设计了4个算法模块,采用多因素分析、层次分析法和德尔菲法对于区域产业进行优选分析,为开发使用简介、易操作的主导产业优选分析软件提供支持。根据理论方法,在设计逻辑较完善的流程图、模型库与数据库样板的基础上,将方法分为输入产业处理模块、区域已有产业优选模块、区域引入产业优选模块、加权偏好处理模块和产业排名输出模块五种模块,以此开发规划辅助软件。文章选择湖北省枣阳市为规划区域,以九类已有产业与三种区域引入产业为研究对象,对软件进行实测分析。研究发现生猪养殖业与蔬菜种植业最具主导潜力,同时应大力发展涉农服务业与光伏发电产业。
[Abstract]:With the economic and social development of our country entering the new normal, traditional agriculture is transitioning to modern agriculture. Agricultural planning plays a normative and leading role in the development of agricultural modernization. More and more enterprises and governments at all levels of attention. In the practice of agricultural planning, regional agricultural leading industry selection is one of the core problems that planners need to solve. In order to effectively integrate agricultural resources, prolong industrial chain, optimize industrial structure and control the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in the region, it is necessary to make clear the leading industries that need to be developed in the planning area, which is in the traditional agricultural planning method. The choice of leading industries depends on the experience of planners, the opinions of local leaders and the preferences of entrepreneurs, so it is urgent to develop and develop the "method of selecting leading industries in agricultural planning areas" and make auxiliary software. On the premise of summarizing the research progress at home and abroad, this paper systematically combs the theory and method of leading industry selection. It lays a foundation for the research of the optimal selection method system. The research of the regional agricultural leading industry optimal selection method system is realized through three processes: theoretical model construction, flow chart design and software development. The theoretical model starts with the two kinds of industries: the existing industry in the region and the industry in the region, and selects the first and second grade indexes which have a higher degree of influence on the planning of the policy, society, economy and resources and environment. Using 6 kinds of industry evaluation factors and sub-factors with leading driving value, four algorithm modules are designed, using multi-factor analysis, analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method to select and analyze the regional industries. This paper provides support for developing the software of selecting and analyzing the leading industry which is easy to operate. According to the theory and method, it is based on the design of logical flow chart, model base and database template. The method is divided into five modules: the input industry processing module, the regional industrial optimal selection module, the region introducing the industrial optimal selection module, the weighted preference processing module and the industrial ranking output module. This paper selects Zaoyang City of Hubei Province as the planning area and takes nine kinds of existing industries and three kinds of regions to introduce industries as the research object. It is found that pig breeding and vegetable planting have the most dominant potential, and agricultural service industry and photovoltaic power generation industry should be developed vigorously.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F327

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