我国体育产业市场规模的系统动力学模型及其仿真实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 13:01

本文选题：体育产业　切入点：市场规模　出处：《南京体育学院学报(社会科学版)》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：国务院提出力争到2025年体育产业产值总规模达到5万亿元后,体育产业市场规模成为大家关注的焦点。本研究基于中国经济发展水平、居民收入和消费水平及体育系统规模水平三个维度的数据,从体育市场供给、体育市场需求、体育产业投资规模和体育人口数量四个子系统入手,运用系统动力学仿真模型对全国体育产业的市场规模进行了动态仿真模拟和实证预测。结果表明:到2020年我国体育产业产值规模达到28681亿元,与国家体育总局提出的3万亿目标还稍有差距;而到2025年远远超出了国务院提出的5万亿元的目标,达到60435亿元。自此,我国体育产业市场规模进入快速增长的时期,同时呈现出阶段性变化的特点。本研究最后提出了相应的对策建议,旨在为我国体育产业的全面健康发展奠定坚实的理论基础。
[Abstract]:The State Council has proposed that after the total output value of the sports industry reaches 5 trillion yuan by 2025, the market size of the sports industry has become the focus of attention. This study is based on the level of economic development in China. The data of the three dimensions of residents' income and consumption level and sports system scale level, starting with the four subsystems of sports market supply, sports market demand, sports industry investment scale and the number of sports population. The market scale of the national sports industry is simulated and forecasted dynamically by using the system dynamics simulation model. The result shows that by 2020, the output value of the sports industry in China will reach two trillion eight hundred and sixty-eight billion one hundred million yuan. By 2025, it had far exceeded the 5 trillion yuan target set by the State Council and reached six trillion forty-three billion five hundred million yuan. Since then, China's sports industry market has entered a period of rapid growth. At the end of this study, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to lay a solid theoretical foundation for the overall and healthy development of the sports industry in China.
【作者单位】：浙江农林大学体育军训部;杭州师范大学体育与健康学院;
【分类号】：G80-05

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