我国城市轨道交通产业安全评价体系研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 05:38

本文选题：城市轨道交通　切入点：投入产出　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济一体化的快速发展,城市轨道交通已经成为城市经济发展不可或缺的重要组成部分。城市轨道交通作为城市内部公共交通方式的核心,其运行方式包括铁道(地铁)、城市铁路(含市郊铁路)、轻轨、单轨及新交通系统等多种方式。对于城市发展而言,完善城市轨道交通网络,不仅可以缓解城市的交通问题,优化产业布局,节约城市用地,还可以提升城市整体的运行效率,带动城市经济发展。但在城市轨道交通快速发展的今天,我国城市轨道交通发展还面临着一系列的问题,其中城市轨道交通产业的安全评价问题依然严重影响着城市轨道交通产业的发展潜力和相关产业的安全、稳定、健康发展。针对城市轨道交通产业的安全评价存在的问题,本文通过对基础理论、相关研究成果以及我国城市轨道交通产业发展现状的梳理,基于轨道交通产业生态系统理论,分别从城市轨道交通产业经济和社会效应评价(宏观)、城市轨道交通产业关联效应评价(中观)和城市轨道交通产业运营风险(微观)等三个角度展开针对我国城市轨道交通产业安全评价的研究,系统构建了适应于我国城市轨道交通产业安全评价体系。从宏观方面,构建城市轨道交通产业的经济与社会效应影响模型,分析城市轨道交通产业的发展对宏观经济和社会效应的影响;从中观方面,以产业关联理论为基础,利用投入产出分析技术研究影响城市轨道交通产业安全的产业关联关系;从微观方面,界定城市轨道交通产业运营风险的构成,并从运营风险、金融风险等方面的影响因素探讨城市轨道交通产业链内部的关系。在此基础上,系统形成了我国城市轨道交通产业安全评价体系,并进一步得到了相关研究模型及评价指标体系。基于本文构建的城市轨道交通产业安全评价体系,使用我国相关数据进行实证分析发现以下结论。首先,我国城市轨道交通产业安全的外部影响要素的实证研究结果表明城市轨道交通产业对第二产业的依赖程度较强,且对所有产业的完全依赖程度随时间均有不同程度的提升;其次,城市轨道交通产业感应度研究表明,城市轨道交通的感应度系数均小于1,且和其他产业相比,城市轨道交通产业的感应能力较差;在此,通过产业关联分析发现了和城市轨道交通产业关联较为密切的一些上游产业部门和下游产业部门;最后,在城市轨道交通金融风险研究中发现,整体上城市轨道交通产业内部金融风险在逐步增加。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of global economic integration, urban rail transit has become an indispensable part of urban economic development. Its operation modes include railway (subway), urban railway (including suburban railway, light rail, monorail and new traffic system, etc.) as far as urban development is concerned, perfecting urban rail transit network can not only alleviate urban traffic problems, Optimizing industrial layout and saving urban land can also improve the overall operating efficiency of the city and promote the development of urban economy. However, with the rapid development of urban rail transit today, the development of urban rail transit in China is still facing a series of problems. The safety evaluation of urban rail transit industry still seriously affects the development potential of urban rail transit industry and the safety, stability and healthy development of related industries. Based on the basic theory, related research results and the current situation of urban rail transit industry development in China, this paper based on the theory of ecosystem of rail transit industry, From three aspects of economic and social effect evaluation of urban rail transit industry (macro), urban rail transit industry relevance effect evaluation (meso) and urban rail transit industry operation risk (micro), respectively, this paper aims at China's economic and social effects. Research on Safety Evaluation of Urban Rail Transit Industry, The evaluation system of urban rail transit industry safety is constructed systematically. From the macro aspect, the economic and social impact model of urban rail transit industry is constructed. This paper analyzes the impact of the development of urban rail transit industry on the macro-economic and social effects, and studies the industrial correlation relations that affect the safety of urban rail transit industry based on the theory of industrial relevance and the use of input-output analysis technology. From the microscopic aspect, the paper defines the composition of the operational risk of urban rail transit industry, and discusses the internal relations of the industrial chain of urban rail transit from the aspects of operational risk and financial risk. The system has formed the safety evaluation system of urban rail transit industry in our country, and has further obtained the related research model and the evaluation index system. First of all, the empirical study on the external factors of the safety of urban rail transit industry in China shows that the urban rail transit industry depends heavily on the secondary industry. Moreover, the degree of total dependence on all industries has been improved in varying degrees over time. Secondly, the research on the industrial sensitivity of urban rail transit shows that the sensitivity coefficient of urban rail transit is less than 1, and compared with other industries, The sensing ability of urban rail transit industry is poor. In this paper, some upstream and downstream industries are found to be closely related to urban rail transit industry through industry correlation analysis. Finally, In the study of the financial risk of urban rail transit, it is found that the internal financial risk of urban rail transit industry is gradually increasing.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F572.3

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