内蒙古对外贸易商品结构和产业结构关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 21:52

本文选题：内蒙古 + 对外贸易商品结构　；参考：《内蒙古财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,全球经济增速下降,主要表现为工业生产低速增长、对外贸易持续低迷、金融市场动荡加剧、大宗商品价格大幅下跌。中国作为贸易大国,面对西方主要贸易伙伴需求疲软和发达国家再工业化的现实状况,加快实现产业结构转型升级和优化对外贸易商品结构,既是推动国内经济可持续健康发展的内在要求,也是适应国际市场、引领全球经济发展的必然选择。内蒙古作为经济发展强劲的民族地区,受全球经济发展的影响,自2012年开始,经济发展速度放缓,而经济发展与产业结构、对外贸易商品结构息息相关。随着全面深化改革的稳步推进,供给侧结构性改革的全面实施,以建设“中蒙俄”经济走廊为契机,内蒙古应把握住新的发展机遇,在宏观政策指引下,努力实现产业结构转型升级以及对外贸易商品结构优化,并形成二者良性互动机制,这样才能够突破原有经济发展方式,培育经济增长新动能,实现经济跨越式发展。本文基于内蒙古对外贸易和产业发展的实际状况,通过分析内蒙古对外贸易商品结构和产业结构的演变发展,着重研究对外贸易商品结构与产业结构的相关关系,深入剖析进出口商品结构对产业结构的影响以及三次产业结构变化对内蒙古进出口商品结构的作用。得到的结论为,内蒙古自治区对外贸易商品结构和产业结构存在长期相关关系;内蒙古产业结构和出口商品结构存在互为格兰杰因果的双向关系;进口商品结构是产业结构的格兰杰原因,为单向关系;在分类商品进出口对产业结构变化影响的实证分析以及产业因素对分类商品进出口结构变化的实证研究发现,分类商品进出口与产业结构发展变化存在一定的错位发展现象,二者关联度低,相互促进作用不足。根据研究结论并结合内蒙古对外贸易商品结构和产业结构发展现状,从外贸发展和产业结构发展两个方面提出针对性对策建议。
[Abstract]:Global economic growth has slowed in recent years, mainly in the form of slow growth in industrial production, a sustained downturn in foreign trade, increased volatility in financial markets and sharp falls in commodity prices. In the face of weak demand from major trading partners in the West and the reindustrialization of developed countries, China, as a big trading country, is speeding up the transformation and upgrading of its industrial structure and optimizing the structure of foreign trade commodities. It is not only the internal requirement of promoting the sustainable and healthy development of domestic economy, but also the inevitable choice of adapting to the international market and leading the development of global economy. As an ethnic region with strong economic development, Inner Mongolia has been affected by the global economic development. Since 2012, the economic development has slowed down, and the economic development is closely related to the industrial structure and the commodity structure of foreign trade. With the steady progress of comprehensive deepening reform and the comprehensive implementation of supply-side structural reform, Inner Mongolia should seize the new development opportunities and take the construction of the "China-Mongolia-Russia" economic corridor as an opportunity, under the guidance of macro policies. To realize the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and the optimization of commodity structure of foreign trade, and to form a benign interactive mechanism between the two, we can break through the original mode of economic development, cultivate new kinetic energy of economic growth, and realize the leap-forward development of economy. Based on the actual situation of foreign trade and industrial development in Inner Mongolia, this paper analyzes the evolution and development of commodity structure and industrial structure of foreign trade in Inner Mongolia, and focuses on the relationship between commodity structure and industrial structure of foreign trade. The influence of the structure of import and export commodities on the industrial structure and the effect of the three changes of the industrial structure on the structure of import and export commodities in Inner Mongolia are analyzed in depth. The conclusions are as follows: there is a long-term correlation between the commodity structure and industrial structure of foreign trade in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, and there is a two-way relationship between industrial structure and export commodity structure of Inner Mongolia that is Granger causality. The structure of import commodities is the Granger cause of industrial structure, which is a one-way relationship, the empirical analysis of the impact of classified commodity import and export on the industrial structure changes and the empirical study of industrial factors on the structural changes of classified commodities import and export. There exists a certain dislocation development phenomenon between the import and export of classified commodities and the development and change of industrial structure. According to the conclusion of the study and the present situation of the development of foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure in Inner Mongolia, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from two aspects: the development of foreign trade and the development of industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.8;F121.3

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