我国跨境电商物流市场规模预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-22 19:37

本文选题：跨境电商 + 跨境电商物流　；参考：《山西大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：跨境电商作为一种新型的对外贸易形式,在我国进出口市场相对疲软的环境下,表现出强大的活力。近两年我国进出口总额出现一定程度的下滑,而跨境电商的交易规模却在节节攀升。“一带一路”“自由贸易试验区”“跨境电商综合实验区”等一系列国家宏观战略的提出,对于我国跨境贸易的发展奠定了扎实的政策基础,同时也规范了行业发展。在跨境电商行业发展势头凶猛的环境下,跨境物流作为跨境电商运营过程中不可或缺的重要环节,其发展状态受到多方关注。跨境物流由于运输距离长,海关参与等诸多因素限制了其发展,因此展开跨境物流相关研究显得尤为必要。对于跨境物流市场规模的预测有助于更有效地整合物流资源,制定物流发展规划。由于目前关于跨境物流实证研究的相关资料较少,因此本文首先对我国跨境电商市场规模进行预测研究,结合跨境B2C上市公司唯品会和亚马逊的相关财报,确定履约成本占营业额的比例范围,从而完成物流规模的预测。在跨境电商规模预测部分,结合行业发展历程及现状,参考相关研究文献,从经济总量,产业结构,国内外贸易,网购发展,人民生活和快递发展六部分设立指标体系,参照指标的选取原则初步设立11项指标。通过灰色关联度分析,剔除3项低关联度指标。在预测方法选择部分,在对各种预测方法进行综述的基础上,结合研究对象确定多元回归和灰色预测方法。实证分析阶段,利用SPSS和MATLAB,基于原始数据建立相关预测模型,并对所建立的模型进行检验,确保预测精度。基于两种模型的预测结果采用综合集成法完成集成预测,预测结果显示,至2020年我国跨境电商市场规模将达到10.61024万亿元。根据唯品会和亚马逊财报分析,判定物流成本约占市场规模的比例约为10%~15%。基于此认为我国跨境电商物流的市场规模至2020年将达到1万亿元与1.6万亿元之间。
[Abstract]:As a new type of foreign trade, cross-border e-commerce shows strong vitality in the weak environment of China's import and export market. In the past two years, China's import and export volume has declined to a certain extent, while the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions has been rising. A series of national macro strategies, such as "Belt and Road", "Free Trade Experimental Zone" and "Cross-border Electronic Commerce Comprehensive Experimental Zone", have laid a solid policy foundation for the development of cross-border trade in China and standardized the development of the industry at the same time. In the environment of fierce development of cross-border e-commerce industry, cross-border logistics as an indispensable part of cross-border e-commerce operation process, its development state has been paid more attention. The development of cross-border logistics is restricted by many factors, such as long transportation distance, customs participation and so on, so it is particularly necessary to carry out research on cross-border logistics. Forecasting the scale of cross-border logistics market is helpful to integrate logistics resources more effectively and formulate logistics development plan. Because of the lack of relevant information about the empirical research on cross-border logistics, this paper first studies the scale of cross-border e-commerce market in China, combined with the cross-border B2C listed company VIPSHOP and Amazon related financial reports. Determine the proportion of performance cost to turnover to achieve logistics scale prediction. In the forecasting part of cross-border e-commerce scale, combined with the development history and current situation of the industry, and referring to the relevant research literature, the paper sets up an index system from six parts of economic aggregate, industrial structure, domestic and foreign trade, online shopping development, people's life and express delivery development. According to the selection principle of indicators, 11 indexes were preliminarily established. Through the analysis of grey correlation degree, three indexes of low correlation degree are eliminated. In the part of selecting forecasting methods, on the basis of summarizing various forecasting methods, the multiple regression and grey prediction methods are determined by combining the research object. In the stage of empirical analysis, SPSS and MATLAB are used to establish the relevant prediction model based on the original data, and to verify the established model to ensure the prediction accuracy. The prediction results based on the two models adopt the integrated method to complete the integrated prediction. The prediction results show that the scale of cross-border e-commerce market in China will reach 10.61024 trillion yuan by 2020. According to VIPSHOP and Amazon earnings analysis, judging logistics costs as a proportion of the market size is about 100.15%. Based on this, the market scale of cross-border e-commerce logistics in China will reach between 1 trillion yuan and 1.6 trillion yuan by 2020.
【学位授予单位】：山西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724.6;F259.2

【参考文献】