第三方支付对我国货币供应量、货币乘数和货币流通速度影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-24 14:03

本文选题：第三方支付 + 货币供应量　；参考：《东北财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着互联网的发展,互联网金融创新逐渐加快,其所带来的影响也越来越被人所关注。互联网金融主要分为四大类,第三方支付类、融资平台类、理财平台类和虚拟货币类。网络信息技术的发展给电子商务带来了飞跃式的发展,作为电子商务中的支付环节,第三方支付也给支付行业带来了巨大变化。第三方支付主要是指以支付宝为代表的具有一定信誉保障和实力的非银行机构。电子商务交易过程中,商家和消费者之间存在一定的信用风险,第三方支付的出现保证了交易过程中货物和资金的分离,解决了交易中的信用风险问题,从而保证了交易的顺利完成。目前人们不仅线上可以购物,线下也可以作为一种支付方式,第三方支付已经逐渐改变了人们的支付方式。艾瑞咨询2014年统计显示,我国第三方网络支付交易总额已经高达8万多亿元,且2015年的交易总额已经突破了 10万亿元。第三方支付使人们的支付变得越来越便捷,交易规模也越来越庞大,是否对我国货币流通带来一定影响;如果有影响,影响有多大;政府在做宏观调控时,是否应该考虑第三方支付行业对政策效果的影响,这些问题都需要探究。近几年第三方支付发展迅猛,无论学术界还是非学术界对其的关注越来越多。查阅相关文献发现,目前研究第三方支付大都停留在理论方面,且对第三方支付的发展模式和监管探究相对很多。探究第三方支付对货币流通的有一部分文献,但主要大部分只是从货币乘数或货币流通速度单方面展开研究,为了全面分析第三方支付对我国货币流通体系的影响,本文选择从货币供应量、货币乘数和货币流通速度三个方面展开实证分析。本文主要从理论和实证两个方面展开分析。从理论角度分析第三方支付对我国货币流通的影响机制,而后采用时间序列实证分析方法进行实证分析和检验。首先,采用协整检验分析各个变量之间存在的长期趋势;然后,应用Granger因果检验分析各变量数量上的因果关系,最后,采用脉冲响应函数分析系统中各变量之间的短期动态变化关系。第三方支付对我国货币供应量影响的理论基础为凯恩斯货币需求理论。假设货币供应量为内生的,货币的需求和供给一段时间内保持均衡,第三方支付的替代效应使得货币由M0向M1和M2的转移,最终使得M1和M2增大。实证分析结果显示:第三方支付和货币供应量M1、M2之间存在正相关关系,即第三方支付的发展对货币供应量M1和M2具有增大效应。理论分析表明第三方支付对我国货币乘数具有双重影响。一方面,第三方支付通过影响现金漏损率、超额准备金率等增大货币乘数。另一方面,第三方支付使得一部分的资金脱离银行信用系统,从而减小了基础货币创造,进而减小货币乘数。实证分析表明:从长期来看,第三方支付对我国货币乘数K1具有减小效应,但第三方支付对货币乘数K2的具有增大效应。货币流通速度的影响因素有多种,但主要决定因素是社会交易商品与劳务的总价值和货币供应量,同时货币流通速度也受到消费习惯和支付习惯的影响。短期内,当社会交易的商品和劳务总价值保持不变时,第三方支付使得货币供给增加,从而使得货币流通速度减小。但长期内,第三方支付使得人们的支付变得更加便捷,改变人们的消费和支付习惯,使得货币流通速度加快。文章实证分析表明:长期内,第三方支付对货币流通速度具有加快效应;但短期来看,第三方支付对货币流通速度具有减小效应。本文的创新之处主要有以下几点:第一,本文的选题新颖。第三方支付作为互联网金融的重要组成部分,是近几年新兴事物,无论是在学术界和非学术界都越来越关注。第二,本文的研究视角新颖。目前对第三方支付的研究主要集中在风险监管方面,对第三方支付的实证研究不是很多,本文总结了第三方支付发展状况,并从货币供应量、货币乘数和货币流通速度三个方面全面分析对我国货币流通的影响,并从这三个方面分别进行实证分析和检验。第三,本文的实证采用的数据为最新数据。本文也存在研究不足之处。一方面,由于第三方支付是近几年发展起来的新鲜事物,学术界刚刚开始关注,目前对第三方支付的探究还不是很深入,再加上本人的研究能力有限,所以本文对第三方支付的研究可能不是很透彻。另一方面,第三方支付目前还未有一个权威的界定,同时也缺乏权威的数据来源,数据量相对较少,所以做实证分析和检验可能受到数据权威性和数据量的局限。
[Abstract]:With the development of the Internet, the Internet financial innovation is becoming more and more rapid, and its influence has been paid more and more attention. The Internet finance is divided into four major categories, third party payment, financing platform, financial platform and virtual currency. The development of network information technology has brought a leap forward development to e-commerce. Payment link in e-commerce, the third party payment to the payment industry has brought great changes. The third party payment mainly refers to a certain reputation and strength of the non bank institutions represented by Alipay. In the process of electronic commerce, there is a certain credit risk between businesses and consumers, third party payment guarantee. The separation of goods and funds in the process of easy process solves the problem of credit risk in the transaction, thus ensuring the smooth completion of the transaction. At present, people can not only do shopping online, but also can be used as a way of payment. The third party payment has gradually changed people's payment formula. ERI Advisory 2014 statistics show that China's third party network The total amount of collateral transactions has reached more than 8 billion yuan, and the total volume of transactions in 2015 has exceeded 10 trillion yuan. Third party payments make people's payment more and more convenient, the size of the transaction is becoming more and more large, whether it has a certain impact on the currency circulation in China; if there is an impact, how big the impact is; whether the government is doing macro regulation and control, whether or not The impact of the third party payment industry on the effect of the policy should be taken into account. These issues need to be explored. In recent years, the third party payments have developed rapidly, both academia and non academic circles have paid more and more attention to it. There is a lot of research on the type and supervision of the third party payment to the currency circulation, but the main part is only from the monetary multiplier or the currency circulation speed unilaterally. In order to analyze the influence of the third party payment on the currency circulation system in our country, this article chooses the money supply, the currency multiplier and the currency circulation. An empirical analysis is carried out in the three aspects of speed. This paper mainly analyzes the two aspects of the theory and the empirical analysis. From the theoretical point of view, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of the third party payment on the currency circulation in China, and then uses the time series empirical analysis method to carry out empirical analysis and test. First, the cointegration test is used to analyze the long term of the existence of each variable. Then, the Granger causality test is used to analyze the causality of the number of variables. Finally, the impulse response function is used to analyze the short-term dynamic changes between the variables in the system. The theoretical basis of the influence of the third party payment on the supply of China's money is Keynes's money demand theory, assuming that the money supply is endogenous, and the money supply is endogenous. The demand and supply remain balanced for a period of time. The substitution effect of third party payment makes the transfer of money from M0 to M1 and M2, and eventually makes M1 and M2 increase. The empirical analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the third party payment and the money supply M1 and M2, that is, the development of the third party payment has an increasing effect on the money supply M1 and M2. The theoretical analysis shows that the third party payment has a double influence on the monetary multiplier of China. On the one hand, the third party payment increases the monetary multiplier by affecting the rate of cash leakage, the excess reserve ratio and so on. On the other hand, the third party payment makes a part of the fund out of the bank credit system, thus reducing the basic money creation and then reducing the currency. The empirical analysis shows that, in the long run, the third party payment has a reduced effect on China's monetary multiplier K1, but the third party payment has an increasing effect on the monetary multiplier K2. There are many factors affecting the speed of money circulation, but the main determinant is the total value and the money supply of the social transaction commodity and labor, and the currency circulation at the same time. Speed is also influenced by consumption habits and payment habits. In the short term, when the total value of goods and services in social transactions remain unchanged, the third party payment increases the supply of money and thus reduces the rate of currency circulation. In the long run, third party payments make people's payments more convenient, changing people's consumption and payment habits. The empirical analysis shows that in the long run, the third party payment has an accelerated effect on the currency circulation speed; but in the short term, the third party payment has a reduced effect on the currency circulation speed. The innovation of this paper is mainly the following points: first, the topic of this article is novel. The third party payment is the Internet. The important part of finance is the emerging things in recent years, both in the academic and non academic circles. Second, the research perspective of this article is novel. The research on the third party payment is mainly focused on the risk regulation, and the empirical research on the third party payment is not many. This article summarizes the development of the third party payment, And from three aspects of money supply, monetary multiplier and currency circulation speed, this paper analyzes the influence of the currency circulation in our country comprehensively, and carries out empirical analysis and test from these three aspects. Third, the data used in this paper is the latest data. This paper also has the shortage of research. On the one hand, because the third party payment is in recent years. The academic circle has just begun to pay attention to the new things, and the research on the third party payment is not very deep, and the research ability of the third party may not be very thorough. On the other hand, the third party payment has not yet a definitive definition, but also the lack of authoritative data. Sources, data volume is relatively small, so empirical analysis and testing may be limited by data authority and data volume.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F822.2

【引证文献】