铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 02:26

本文关键词：铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价研究　出处：《江西理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本论文来源于教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“重要矿产资源海外开发战略选区风险评价技术研究”(项目编号：12YJA790208)。论文以铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价为研究对象,在详细综述国内外区位理论、风险管理理论的基础上,应用理论研究与案例分析相结合、定性分析与定量研究相结合等方法对铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价进行综合研究。本论文的主要研究内容与结论如下：首先,详细综述了国内外区位理论、风险管理理论的研究成果；对国内外矿产资源区位选择和矿产资源海外开发战略选区风险评价的研究成果进行了整理。其次,对我国铝矿资源供需市场进行了深入分析,得出我国铝矿资源储量虽然丰富,但需求量、进口规模大,外贸依存度高,且进口来源单一；利用BP人工神经网络建立了铝矿需求情景模型,测算出我国2014～2020年铝矿资源的表观消费量,并结合回归分析法综合测算出我国未来铝矿资源的外贸依存度。第三,采用专家调查法对铝矿资源海外开发战略选区面临的主要风险进行了识别,构建了铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价指标体系,该指标体系包含了八个一级指标和二十五个二级指标；将云理论引入到物元理论中,用Matlab软件计算各风险等级的隶属度,建立了基于云物元理论的铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价模型。第四,选取了13个铝矿资源比较丰富的国家作为应用对象,利用云物元模型对其进行分析和评价,结果显示：澳大利亚和美国处于“低”风险状态；巴西、印度、圭亚那、哈萨克斯坦处于“较低”风险状态；越南、苏里南和俄罗斯处于“一般”风险状态；几内亚、牙买加、希腊处于“较高”风险状态；委瑞内拉处于“高”风险状态。并从战略选区风险的角度对13个国家的云物元模型评价结果进行了详细分析。研究结果表明：本文所构建的框架体系与理论模型具有较好的理论与实际推广价值,可以为我国铝矿资源的海外开发提供相应的理论依据与决策支持方法。
[Abstract]:This paper is from the Ministry of education's humanities and social sciences research and planning fund project "Research on risk assessment technology of important mineral resources overseas development strategy" (item number: 12YJA790208). The area for overseas development strategy of bauxite resources risk assessment as the research object, based on a detailed review of domestic domain theory, risk management theory, the research on the application of theory and practice, combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method for comprehensive research and development strategy selection on risk evaluation of aluminum mineral resources abroad. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: firstly, a detailed review of the research results of the domestic and outer position theory, the theory of risk management; research area for overseas development strategy of domestic and foreign mineral resources and mineral resources location risk assessment is carried out. Second, the market supply and demand of bauxite resources in China are analyzed, the aluminum mineral resources reserves in China is rich, but the demand for imports, large scale, high dependence on foreign trade, and established a single source of imports; aluminum ore demand model based on BP artificial neural network, calculate the aluminum in China from 2014 to 2020 the apparent consumption of mineral resources, and combined with the regression analysis method to calculate the comprehensive degree of dependence on China's future aluminum mineral resources trade. Third, the main risk expert investigation of overseas development strategy selection of bauxite resources faces are identified and constructed area for overseas development strategy of bauxite resources risk evaluation index system, the index system includes eight first level indexes and twenty-five level two indexes; the cloud theory is introduced into the matter-element theory, calculation membership of each risk level by using the software of Matlab, established the area for overseas development strategy of bauxite resources risk evaluation model based on cloud matter-element theory. Fourth, select the 13 aluminium ore resource rich countries as application object, analysis and evaluation, the use of cloud matter-element model results show: Australia and the United States in the "low risk" state; Brazil, India, Guyana and Kazakhstan in a "low risk" state; Vietnam, Suriname and Russia in "general risk state; Guinea, Jamaica, Greece, in the" high "risk state; Venezuela is" high risk ". And from the perspective of strategic constituency risk, the evaluation results of cloud element model in 13 countries are analyzed in detail. The research results show that the framework system and theoretical model constructed in this paper have better theoretical and practical popularization value, which can provide theoretical basis and decision-making support for overseas development of China's aluminum resources.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.1

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