成本估算与成本风险在航空燃油泵研发项目中的应用研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 09:20

本文关键词：成本估算与成本风险在航空燃油泵研发项目中的应用研究　出处：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近来,民用航空业蓬勃发展,使得民用飞机及零部件市场的竞争日趋激烈。各航空制造型企业为了提高自身产品的竞争力,获得更高的经济收益,对产品研发加大投入。然而由于研发项目在前期的成本估算做得不准确或过于乐观,使得项目完工时的实际成本支出远远大于项目预算。这不仅导致了项目本身盈利目的难以达到甚至亏损,更迫使企业增加额外投入,造成极大运营负担。因此,提高对航空产品研发项目的成本估算水平对企业有着至关重要的意义。本文以H型航空燃油泵研制项目为应用案例,提出了结合风险预测的项目成本估算过程和方法。通过定义客户需求、项目工作范围,分析项目开发流程,到规划项目资源配备,主要运用三点评估及蒙特卡罗模拟统计法来进行范围估算,从而获得初步成本估算结果。同时,对项目存在的风险进行定性和定量分析,确定为有效控制项目风险需要预留的风险成本,即储备金。从而,最终获得较准确的燃油泵研发项目的成本估算结果或预算。通过对此课题的研究,以期达到归纳和总结项目成本管理的最佳实践的目的,并为今后类似研发项目的成本估算工作所借鉴。
[Abstract]:Recently, the civil aviation industry has developed vigorously, making the competition in the civil aircraft and parts market increasingly fierce. In order to improve the competitiveness of their own products, all the aviation manufacturing enterprises gain higher economic returns and invest more in product research and development. However, due to the inaccuracy or overoptimism of the R & D project in the previous cost estimation, the actual cost of the project is far greater than the project budget. This not only leads to the difficulties of the project itself and even the loss, but also compels the enterprises to increase the extra investment and cause the huge operation burden. Therefore, it is of great significance for the enterprise to improve the cost estimation level of the R & D project. This paper takes the H aviation fuel pump development project as an application case, and puts forward the project cost estimation process and method combined with the risk prediction. By defining the needs of customers, the scope of project work, analyzing the project development process and planning the project resource allocation, we mainly use three points evaluation and Monte Carlo simulation statistics to estimate the scope, so as to get the preliminary cost estimation results. At the same time, the risk of the project is qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed to determine the risk cost that should be reserved for the effective control of the project risk, that is, the reserve. Thus, a more accurate result or budget of the fuel pump R & D project is obtained. Through the research of this subject, we hope to conclude and summarize the purpose of best practice of project cost management, and to draw lessons from cost estimation for similar R & D projects in the future.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.4;F406.7

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