山东省能源经济环境系统模糊规划研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 00:28

本文关键词：山东省能源经济环境系统模糊规划研究　出处：《中国石油大学(华东)》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济的高速发展,山东省面临的能源短缺、环境污染等问题日渐加剧。区域的可持续发展关键在于能源经济环境系统的科学健康发展。因此,如何保持能源、经济、环境的系统发展,成为整个山东省日益关注的问题。本文以山东省能源经济环境系统为研究对象,首先对山东省能源、经济、环境子系统进行现状分析;分别选取GDP和三次产业结构,能源消费强度,化学需氧量排放量、SO2排放量和氨氮排放量作为经济、能源、环境子系统的目标参数,选取三次产业固定资产投资、一次能源消费总量、环境污染治理总投资作为各子系统的决策变量,确定模糊变量及其表述形式,构建山东省能源、经济、环境不同优先序下的模糊机会约束目标规划模型;继而给出了用于求解模型的混合智能算法的具体步骤;结合《山东省统计年鉴》所提供的统计数据和山东省“十二五”规划对山东省能源经济环境系统进行实证,得到系统优化结果并对其进行分析;最后提出有利于山东省能源经济环境系统科学发展的相关对策建议。本文的模糊模型可以近似反映山东省能源经济环境系统的内在关系与演化规律,为山东省能源经济环境系统发展提供有效的决策支持。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, Shandong Province is faced with energy shortage, environmental pollution and other problems. The key to sustainable development of the region lies in the scientific and healthy development of energy economic and environmental system. How to maintain the system development of energy, economy and environment has become a growing concern of the whole Shandong Province. This paper takes the energy economy and environment system of Shandong Province as the research object, first of all, the energy and economy of Shandong Province. The environment subsystem carries on the present situation analysis; GDP and tertiary industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, chemical oxygen demand emissions so 2 emissions and ammonia nitrogen emissions were selected as the target parameters of economic, energy and environmental subsystems. The investment of fixed assets of three industries, the total consumption of primary energy and the total investment of environmental pollution control are selected as the decision-making variables of each subsystem, and the fuzzy variables and their expressions are determined to construct the energy and economy of Shandong Province. Fuzzy chance constrained objective programming model under different priority order of environment; Then the concrete steps of the hybrid intelligent algorithm for solving the model are given. Based on the statistical data provided by the Statistical Yearbook of Shandong Province and the 12th Five-Year Plan of Shandong Province, the energy economy and environment system of Shandong Province is empirically demonstrated, and the system optimization results are obtained and analyzed. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the scientific development of the energy economy and environment system in Shandong Province. The fuzzy model in this paper can approximately reflect the inherent relationship and evolution law of the energy economy and environment system in Shandong Province. It provides effective decision support for the development of energy economy and environment system in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;X321;X24

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