汇率变动对广东省制造业产业结构的影响

发布时间：2017-12-31 18:25

本文关键词：汇率变动对广东省制造业产业结构的影响　出处：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：汇率政策是国家宏观经济中重要的调节方式。改革开放以来，我国经济屡屡出现内、外部均衡的冲突，而且不断引发涉及汇率制度的争议。在人民币汇率处于振荡上升阶段，社会资源结构面临巨大压力的背景下，深入研究汇率变动对制造业产业结构的影响对我国实现经济内、外均衡发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。近年来人民币的大幅升值已经对我国经济的发展带来严重冲击，这些冲击将直接影响广东省制造业的产业结构。在此背景下，研究人民币升值对广东省制造业产业结构调整的影响，不但能够将人民币升值影响制造业产业结构的机理清晰化，还能为政府进一步发展、调整制造业结构提供政策建议。本文先阐述国内外专家学者对汇率变化与制造业产业结构之间的关系、所进行的研究以及得出的观点，并对以上观点进行概括总结，阐述了名义汇率、实际汇率、制造业等相关概念，同时，介绍了汇率变动影响产业结构的相关理论，包括总需求理论、资本代替劳动效应、马歇尔-勒纳条件等，然后以这些理论为分析依据，研究人民币升值影响制造业产业结构的机理，，规范地阐述人民币升值如何影响广东省制造业产业结构。其次，以广东省制造业相关数据进行实证分析。对人民币升值影响产业结构进行平稳性检验、协整检验、因果关系检验，并运用OLS等方法进行实证分析，研究人民币升值对广东省制造业产业结构影响的显著程度。最后，通过理论分析加实证检验，得出结论:一、人民币有效汇率上升会使广东制造业中的低技术制造业占比上升。二、人民币升值对不同的制造业部门有不同的影响:有利于劳动密集型产业的发展。
[Abstract]:The exchange rate policy is an important way of regulating the macro economy. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy appears repeatedly in the conflict, external balance, and continue to lead to the exchange rate system of RMB exchange rate is controversial. In the rising phase of the oscillation, the structure of social resources is facing tremendous pressure in the background, in-depth study of the impact of exchange rate movements on the manufacturing industry the structure of China's economic, it has important theoretical and practical significance of balanced development. Substantial appreciation of the renminbi in recent years has been the development of our country economy brought a serious impact, the industrial structure of these shocks will directly affect the manufacturing industry in Guangdong province. In this context, research on the impact of RMB appreciation on manufacturing industry structure adjustment Guangdong Province, not only to the mechanism of the impact of RMB appreciation manufacturing industrial structure clarity, but also for the government to further development, adjustment of manufacturing The industry structure provides policy recommendations.
This article first elaborated the domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the relationship between the change of exchange rate and industrial structure of manufacturing industry, the results of the study and the viewpoint, and the point of view of the above summary, elaborated the nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate, manufacturing and other related concepts, at the same time, the exchange rate changes affect the industrial structure theory, including the theory of aggregate demand, instead of labor capital effect, the Marshall Lerner condition, and then takes these theories as the analysis basis, research on the impact of RMB appreciation mechanism of manufacturing industrial structure, specification on RMB appreciation how to affect the industrial structure of manufacturing industry in Guangdong province.
Secondly, the manufacturing sector in Guangdong province relevant data for empirical analysis. The stationary test of the impact of RMB appreciation of industrial structure, cointegration test, Granger causality test, and makes an empirical analysis by using the OLS method, the appreciation of RMB significantly impact the industrial structure of Guangdong province.
Finally, through theoretical analysis and empirical tests, the paper concluded that: first, increase the effective exchange rate of RMB will make the manufacturing industry in Guangdong and low technology manufacturing industry accounted for the rise. Two, RMB appreciation has different effect on different manufacturing sectors: conducive to the development of labor-intensive industries.

【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F427

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