电力上市公司财务风险评价及预警研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 21:20

本文关键词：电力上市公司财务风险评价及预警研究　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力工业是国民经济的重要基础能源产业,在国家经济发展战略中占有举足轻重的地位。电力上市公司作为电力工业中最具活力和发展潜力的企业,其财务状况受到投资者、债权人的广泛关注。随着全球经济一体化的发展,我国上市公司拥有优越发展机遇的同时面临巨大的挑战,电力上市公司作为上市公司中的一员同样面临着激烈的竞争和多元化的风险,其中财务风险是企业发展过程中面临的最重要的风险之一。近年来,电力上市公司资产负债率高居不下,偿债压力较大,企业财务风险较高。因此,评价企业当前财务风险水平并对其进行有效预警对于电力上市公司提升财务抗风险能力具有重大意义。本文首先梳理财务风险预警的相关概念,介绍所使用模型和方法的基本理论。其次,本文对电力行业的特征及其面临的风险进行分析。在借鉴前人的研究成果并结合电力上市公司的实际,从盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力、成长能力、现金流量等五个方面构建了电力上市公司风险评价的指标体系。考虑到评价指标可能存在共线性的问题,本文采用主成分TOPSIS法进行综合评价分析,即对评价指标进行主成分选取,利用TOPSIS法对上市公司财务风险进行综合评价并划分等级,随后使用遗传算法优化的支持向量机(GA-SVM)模型并借助Java编程实现了电力上市公司财务风险预警分析。实证结果表明GA-SVM预警模型有较好的判别精度。最后,根据前文的理论分析以及实证研究结果,提出了针对电力上市公司的财务风险控制策略。
[Abstract]:Electric power industry is an important basic energy industry of national economy, which plays an important role in the national economic development strategy. The listed power companies are the most dynamic and potential enterprises in the power industry. With the development of global economic integration, the listed companies of our country have the superior development opportunity and face the huge challenge at the same time. As a member of listed companies, electric power listed companies also face fierce competition and diversified risks, among which financial risk is one of the most important risks in the process of enterprise development. Power listed companies have a high ratio of assets and liabilities, higher debt service pressure and higher financial risk. It is of great significance to evaluate the current financial risk level of enterprises and carry out effective early warning for the power listed companies to enhance the ability of financial risk resistance. This article first combs the financial risk early warning related concept, introduces the basic theory of the model and the method used. Secondly. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the power industry and the risks it faces. In the light of the previous research results and the actual situation of the listed power companies, the paper analyzes the profitability, solvency, operating capacity and growth ability of the listed companies. This paper constructs the index system of power listed companies' risk evaluation from five aspects, such as cash flow. Considering that the evaluation index may have the problem of collinearity, this paper adopts the principal component TOPSIS method to carry on the comprehensive evaluation analysis. That is to say, the main components of the evaluation index are selected, and the financial risk of listed companies is comprehensively evaluated and classified by using TOPSIS method. Subsequently, the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the support vector machine (GA-SVM). The model also realizes the financial risk early warning analysis of listed power companies with Java programming. The empirical results show that the GA-SVM early warning model has good discriminant accuracy. Finally. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results, the paper puts forward the financial risk control strategy for the listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.61

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