我国光伏产业应对美国反倾销预警系统研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 15:28

本文关键词：我国光伏产业应对美国反倾销预警系统研究　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以中国和美国光伏产品进出口贸易中存在的反倾销问题作为出发点，分析美国对中国出口光伏产品反倾销调查及征收高额反倾销税的现状，找出美国对中国光伏产品反倾销指控的主要原因，在此基础上运用模糊决策树的方法来构建反倾销预警系统，从而尽最大可能为政府及有光伏产业相关部门研究和制定相应的反倾销管理政策和措施提供理论依据，控制和减少美国对中国出口光伏产品反倾销指控的案件数量，使得被指控光伏产品企业能够及早制定出积极的应对措施，避免或减少反倾销对我国经济和相关行业造成的损失，，增加光伏企业的国际竞争力。本文在借鉴国内外已有的研究成果的基础上，根据中国光伏产业的发展现状以及美国光伏行业经济发展指标，构造出中国光伏产业应对美国反倾销预警系统，采用应用模糊决策树技术来预测中国光伏产品出口企业在未来是否依然会遭到美国反倾销控诉，并给出与之对应的预警信号。首先，本文分析了中美贸易关系现状及其特点，重在指出中美贸易中存在的反倾销问题，其特点、原因和发展趋势。其次，比较分析美国对我国光伏产业反倾销的现状以及反倾销对我国经济和出口贸易造成的影响。定性分析美国对我国反倾销指控的主要原因并通过问卷调查收集专家意见，利用专家评分法，定量分析美国对我国光伏产业反倾销指控的主要原因及其重要性。最后，在上述研究基础上，依据模糊决策树预警系统理论，参照其他经济领域有关预警系统的实际研究，建立美国对中国反倾销的统计预警模型和预测模型。经过实证检验，结果也显明该预警系统具有相对较好的预测效果。构建西方发达国家对我国出口商品反倾销预警系统研究，使得我国应付外国对华反倾销预警体系得到进一步丰富和完善，同时，将模糊决策树这种数据挖掘技术与反倾销预警研究相结合使用也是学术上一次新的尝试。
[Abstract]:Based on the antidumping problems existing in the import and export trade of photovoltaic products between China and the United States, this paper analyzes the current situation of anti-dumping investigations and high anti-dumping duties imposed by the United States on China's exports of photovoltaic products. To find out the main reasons of antidumping charges against Chinese photovoltaic products in the United States, on the basis of this, using the fuzzy decision tree method to build the antidumping early warning system. Thus as far as possible for the government and photovoltaic industry related departments to study and formulate the corresponding anti-dumping management policies and measures to provide a theoretical basis. To control and reduce the number of US anti-dumping cases against China's exports of photovoltaic products, so that the alleged photovoltaic products enterprises can formulate early positive response measures. To avoid or reduce the losses caused by anti-dumping to China's economy and related industries, and to increase the international competitiveness of photovoltaic enterprises. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, according to the current situation of photovoltaic industry in China and the economic development index of photovoltaic industry in the United States, this paper constructs an antidumping early warning system for China's photovoltaic industry to deal with the United States. Using fuzzy decision tree technology to predict whether Chinese photovoltaic export enterprises will still be sued by the United States anti-dumping in the future, and give the corresponding warning signal. First of all. This paper analyzes the current situation and characteristics of Sino-US trade relations, and points out the antidumping problems existing in Sino-US trade, its characteristics, causes and development trends. A comparative analysis of the current situation of antidumping by the United States against China's photovoltaic industry and the impact of anti-dumping on China's economy and export trade. Qualitative Analysis of the main causes of American Anti-dumping charges against China and the collection of experts through questionnaires. Opinions. Using expert scoring method, quantitative analysis of the main causes and importance of anti-dumping charges against China's photovoltaic industry in the United States. Finally, based on the above research, according to the theory of fuzzy decision tree early warning system. With reference to the actual research on the early warning system in other economic fields, the statistical early warning model and forecasting model of American anti-dumping against China are established. The results also show that the early warning system has a relatively good prediction effect. It makes our country to deal with the foreign anti-dumping early warning system to be further enriched and perfected, at the same time, it is a new academic attempt to combine the data mining technology of fuzzy decision tree with antidumping early warning research.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.02;F426.6

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