页岩气革命背景下中国石油安全预警与对策研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 00:12

本文关键词：页岩气革命背景下中国石油安全预警与对策研究　出处：《中国石油大学(华东)》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：石油是各国发展的重要战略性资源。能源消耗总量持续大幅增长,尤其对油气资源的需求更是与日俱增,是我国经济社会快速发展的必然结果。我国油气供需缺口日益加大,石油对外依存度一路攀升,一方面将影响国际石油市场,另一方面使中国突出的石油安全问题变得更为严峻。为了保障我国国民经济和社会的持续健康平稳发展,必须高度重视并提升我国石油安全。页岩气革命带来了深远的影响,延伸到全球能源、政治、经济等领域。在页岩气革命背景下中国石油安全面临新的态势。建立和完善页岩气革命背景下中国石油安全预警系统至关重要。本文在石油安全预警相关理论基础上,论述页岩气革命的发展及其带来的影响,并分析了页岩气革命背景下中国石油安全面临的态势。构建了基于页岩气革命背景的中国石油安全预警指标体系并利用主成分分析方法确定指标权重,采用多元线性加权求和方法初步测算石油安全,然后通过多元多项式回归进行进一步测算,两种结果结合分析,评价和预测未来中国石油安全状况,最后提出了页岩气革命背景下提升中国石油安全对策。希望本文对如何建立石油安全预警体系以及保障我国石油安全起到一定的指导作用。
[Abstract]:Oil is an important strategic resource for the development of various countries. The total energy consumption continues to increase by a large margin, especially the demand for oil and gas resources is increasing day by day. It is the inevitable result of the rapid development of our country's economy and society. The gap between supply and demand of oil and gas in our country is increasing day by day. On the other hand, the outstanding oil security problems in China have become more serious, in order to ensure the sustained, healthy and stable development of our national economy and society. We must attach great importance to and enhance the oil security of our country. The shale gas revolution has brought profound influence to the global energy and politics. Under the background of shale gas revolution, China's oil security is facing a new situation. It is very important to establish and perfect China's oil security early warning system in the background of shale gas revolution. On the basis. The development of shale gas revolution and its influence are discussed. The paper also analyzes the situation of China's petroleum security under the background of shale gas revolution, and constructs the early warning index system of China's oil security based on the background of shale gas revolution, and uses principal component analysis to determine the index weight. The oil safety was preliminarily calculated by multivariate linear weighted summation method, and further calculated by multivariate polynomial regression. The two results were combined with analysis to evaluate and predict the future situation of China's oil security. Finally, the paper puts forward the countermeasures to improve China's oil security under the background of shale gas revolution. It is hoped that this paper will play a guiding role in establishing an early warning system for oil security and ensuring the oil security in China.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.22

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