国际油价下跌及未来走势解析

发布时间：2018-01-24 08:00

本文关键词： 油价下跌页岩油布伦特原油美元汇率下跌趋势市场投机原油价格出口地区大型石油公司价格影响因素 　出处：《农村金融研究》2015年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：自2014年6月以来,国际原油价格出现持续大幅下跌趋势。至今年1月,布伦特原油价格由115美元/桶跌至45美元/桶,创2009年以来新低,跌幅超过60%,随后油价反弹至55美元左右,成为二战结束以来60多年中罕见的现象。分析表明,这是政治、经济和市场多重因素作用的结果。页岩油革命导致美国石油供应增多,全球经济低迷导致市场需求减少,市场发生历史性变化,过剩成为新常态;美欧俄在中东、乌克兰激烈博弈,美国与沙特联手推低油价,以打压俄罗斯、伊朗等国;美元汇率走强,市场投机推波助澜。高油价已成为过去。
[Abstract]:Since June 2014, international crude oil prices have continued to decline sharply. To January this year, Brent crude oil prices fell from $115 per barrel to $45 per barrel, a new low since 2009. After falling more than 60 cents, oil prices rebounded to about $55, a phenomenon that has been rare in more than 60 years since the end of World War II. Analysis shows that this is politics. The shale oil revolution led to an increase in the supply of oil in the United States, the global economic downturn led to a decrease in market demand, and historical changes took place in the market, and surplus became the new normal. The United States, Europe and Russia in the Middle East, Ukraine, the fierce game, the United States and Saudi Arabia to push down oil prices, in order to suppress Russia, Iran and other countries; The dollar has strengthened and speculation in the markets has fuelled it. High oil prices are a thing of the past.
【作者单位】：中国农业银行国际金融部;
【分类号】：F416.22;F764.1
【正文快照】： 国际石油市场、价格波动及历史(一)国际石油市场概况全球石油资源包括传统石油(又分为轻质油、中质油和重质油)和非传统石油(页岩油等)。传统石油探明储量集中在中东北非、墨西哥湾、俄罗斯、委内瑞拉、中国等地,页岩油90%以上集中在北美。中东北非、俄罗斯、委内瑞拉等是主要

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