能源价格波动对中国区域经济的影响及比较研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 10:10

本文关键词： 能源价格中国经济结构效应总量效应面板数据模型　出处：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源作为我国的上游产业，其价格波动对中国经济造成深远的影响。科学的揭示能源价格波动对中国区域经济的影响，对我国经济平衡稳定的发展及各区域相关政策建议的选择具有积极的意义。本文先对能源价格波动对经济的影响进行理论分析，再对国内外能源价格波动对经济影响的研究进行总结与回顾，然后进一步阐明要从总量效应和结构效应两个视角来研究能源价格波动对经济的影响。在总量效应的视角下，主要研究能源价格波动对地区生产总值和物价水平的影响，在结构效应的视角下，主要研究能源价格波动对消费水平、投资水平和出口的影响。在此研究框架下，本文利用面板数据模型对此问题进行研究。本文的创新点主要有两个，一是研究视角的创新。通过对以往文献的研究，发现大部分学者在研究能源价格波动对经济的影响时，都是在总量效应的视角下研究的。本文借鉴于以往学者的研究成果，分别在总量效应和结构效应两个视角下来研究能源价格波动对经济的影响，丰富了研究能源价格波动对经济影响的内容。二是研究内容的创新。将能源价格波动对经济的影响运用到区域的差异性研究，从研究内容上来看，更接近于实际。这与目前国内学者主要研究能源价格波动对全国或某一区域经济的影响相比，有较大的区别和新颖之处。为各区域的经济政策选择提供借鉴意义。本文的研究结论：通过理论上的分析，能源价格波动对地区生产总值的影响是负的，对物价总水平的影响是正的，对消费、投资和出口水平的影响也是负的。而实证所得的结论和理论并不完全一致，实证结果表明：能源价格波动对地区生产总值、消费、投资和出口都有正的影响，这一结论和理论分析的结果恰恰相反。对物价水平的影响也是正的，这和理论分析的结果是一致的。通过对文献的研究及结合中国的实际情况，对这种结果进行了解释。另外，实证研究结果还表明，能源价格对东中西部地区的影响是有差异性的。从总量效应的视角下分析，能源价格波动对东部地区的地区生产总值的影响最大，中部次之，西部最小。对中部地区的物价水平的影响最大，东部次之，西部最小。从结构效应的视角下分析，能源价格波动对东部地区的消费水平的影响最大，中部次之，，西部最小。对中部地区的投资水平的影响最大，西部次之，东部最小。从出口的角度来说，对东部地区的出口水平的影响最大，中部次之，西部最小。这和各个地区的经济发展程度和中国政策扶持的方向性有关系。最后给出相关的政策建议。根据实证的结果，立足于全国经济平衡稳定发展，根据所得出的结论，对不同的区域提出不同的相关经济政策，对相关的政府部门也给出了几点政策建议。
[Abstract]:As the upstream industry of our country, the price fluctuation of energy has a profound impact on Chinese economy, and scientifically reveals the impact of energy price fluctuation on China's regional economy. It is of positive significance to the balanced and stable development of China's economy and the choice of relevant policy suggestions in various regions. In this paper, the impact of energy price fluctuations on the economy is theoretically analyzed, and then the domestic and foreign energy price fluctuations on the economic impact are summarized and reviewed. Then it is further expounded that the impact of energy price fluctuation on the economy should be studied from the perspective of aggregate effect and structural effect. This paper mainly studies the impact of energy price fluctuation on regional GDP and price level. From the perspective of structural effect, it mainly studies the impact of energy price fluctuation on consumption level. The influence of investment level and export. In this research framework, this paper uses panel data model to study this problem. There are two main innovation points in this paper, one is the innovation of research perspective. Through the research of previous literature, we find that most of the scholars are studying the impact of energy price fluctuations on the economy. This paper draws lessons from the previous scholars' research results and studies the impact of energy price fluctuation on the economy from the perspective of aggregate effect and structural effect respectively. Enriched the study of energy price fluctuations on the economic impact of content. Second, the content of innovation. The impact of energy price fluctuations on the economy is applied to regional differences, from the perspective of research content. This is closer to reality. This is compared with the current domestic scholars mainly study the impact of energy price fluctuations on the national or a regional economy. There are great differences and novelty. It provides reference for the economic policy choice of various regions. The conclusion of this paper: through theoretical analysis, the impact of energy price fluctuation on regional GDP is negative, on the overall level of prices is positive, on consumption. The effect of investment and export level is also negative. But the conclusion and theory are not completely consistent. The empirical results show that the fluctuation of energy prices has a positive impact on regional GDP, consumption, investment and exports. This conclusion is contrary to the result of theoretical analysis. The influence on price level is also positive, which is consistent with the result of theoretical analysis. In addition, the empirical results also show that the impact of energy prices on the eastern, central and western regions is different. From the perspective of the total effect analysis. Energy price fluctuations have the greatest impact on the regional GDP in the eastern region, followed by the central region, the western region, the biggest impact on the price level in the central region, followed by the eastern region. From the perspective of structural effect, the energy price fluctuation has the greatest impact on the consumption level in the eastern region, followed by the central region, the western region, the largest impact on the investment level in the central region, followed by the western region. From the point of view of export, the influence on the export level of the eastern region is the greatest, followed by the central region and the west, which is related to the degree of economic development of each region and the directionality of China's policy support. According to the empirical results, based on the balanced and stable development of the national economy, according to the conclusions, put forward different relevant economic policies for different regions. Some policy suggestions are also given to the relevant government departments.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;F764;F127;F224

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